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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Crime Big Issue – Arizona, North Carolina Senate – Biden Keeps Lead

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 3


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Is Trump’s bounce fading? Yesterday, he was up to 46%. Now, with a slew of new polls, he’s back to 44%…. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (CNN) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+2 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.


Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(Economist) Biden +11 (51-40)
(Quinnipiac) Biden +10 (52-42)
(CNN) Biden +8 (51-43)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +8 (49-41)
(The Hill) Biden +6 (46-40)
(Rasmussen) Biden +4 (49-45)
Average: Biden +7.8

RON’S COMMENT: Despite signs of softening over the last few days, Biden’s national trial heat standing appears to be firming up with this latest round of polls… Seventeen days ago, Biden had an average lead of 7.5 points based on three polls conducted before the party “conventions” started––about the same sized lead he has now.

  • In 2016, Hillary Clinton had an average lead of 6 points based on the first six polls conducted after that year’s conventions. In the actual election three months later, Clinton led the nationwide popular vote, which is what national polls measure, by a 2.1-point margin.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016: 
ARIZONA: Biden +9

RON’S COMMENT: Very good news for Biden. These polls conducted for Fox News have him leading Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina, three critical states. His margins in Wisconsin and Arizona are especially hefty…. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by eight-tenths of a point; he also won Arizona and North Carolina by almost 4 points each.


Among voters in each state

Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +6 (48-42)

COMMENT: The last poll we reported showed Republican incumbent TIllis and his challenger even. But this one has Democrat Cunningham back up with about the same sized lead he had before. Democrats must win North Carolina to have a shot at Senate control. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.

Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +17 (56-39)

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll has raised eyebrows. It shows Democrat Kelly blowing out a big lead over GOP incumbent McSally. The three previous polls had Kelly ahead by a narrower 7.3 points…. Democrats must win Arizona to have a shot at Senate control….Handicappers rate the contest tilt/lean Democratic.


Among voters nationwide

Seriousness of problem: How serious a problem is crime in the United States? 

Very/somewhat serious: 81%
Minor/not a problem: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that crime is a big issue across the nation. Democrats who fear even using the word “crime” in their campaigns are clearly misreading voter concerns.

  • Big majorities of all voters agree: 81% of Whites, 84% of Blacks, 84% of Hispanics, 74% of Biden voters and 92% of Trump voters believe crime is a very or somewhat serious problem. Only 23% of Biden voters say it’s a minor problem or not a problem.

Personal concernHow concerned are you that you or one of your loved ones will be the victim of a crime? 

Very/somewhat concerned: 47%
Not too concerned/not concerned at all: 52%

RON’S COMMENT: 44% of Whites, 59% of Blacks, 61% of Hispanics, 45% of Biden voters and 52% of Trump voters are very or somewhat concerned that they or one of their loved ones will be a victim of crime. Note that a higher percentage of Blacks are concerned about being a crime victim than are Trump voters (59% vs. 52%).


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: CNN, Aug. 28-Sept. 1; The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 30-Sept. 9; IBD/TIPP, Aug. 29-Sept. 1; The Hill/HarrisX, Aug. 29-31; Quinnipiac, Aug. 28-31; Rasmussen, Aug. 26-Sept. 1
CRIME:The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 30-Sept. 1

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.