Among voters in each state
(Monmouth) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +5 (49-44)
(WRAL-TV) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +10 (49-39)
COMMENT: These two polls were both taken Oct. 8-11, and they both show Cunningham surviving the texting scandal. But, Democrats are still worried––Cunningham’s negative ratings in the Monmouth poll have been going up––but for now their candidate appears to be weathering the scandal in terms of the matchup against GOP incumbent Tillis…. From the internals:
- Says the Monmouth poll report: “…very few voters (14%) feel that the sexting revelation disqualifies Cunningham from holding office. Another 32% say this behavior calls his character into question but is not a disqualifier, while just over half (51%) say this should only be an issue for him and his family.”
- The WRAL-TV poll shows Cunningham strengthening among men and Tillis doing better among women since the scandal.
- Polling shows that Cunningham would helped by a very high overall turnout.
- Handicappers rate the race a tossup or tilt Democratic.
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +1 (43-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows the Michigan Senate race narrowing to a thin 1-point lead for Peters. The five previous polls gave the Democratic incumbent an average lead of 6.6 points…. A Democratic loss of this seat would be a major blow to the party’s chances to pick up Senate control…. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
Sen. Tina Smith (D) over Jason Lewis (R): +7 (44-37)
RON’S COMMENT: The two previous polls have Democrat Smith with an average lead of 9 points. Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic.