21 May LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Electoral College Risk Window – Senate Races in Georgia, Alabama, Arizona – Re-Opening Tradeoffs – Recession Worries
Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, May 21
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 46% (Rasmussen, Economist, CNBC). The other two polls average 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 since Tuesday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among voters nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: Five new polls show Biden holding a lead. It should be noted that Quinnipiac polls often show Democrats doing better than other polls. And, Rasmussen often has Trump’s approval ratings higher than other polls.
Electoral College Risk Window: As we know, polls of the national popular vote do not necessarily reflect how Electoral College votes will break. In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, but won a majority of the electoral vote. In 2000, George W. Bush lost the popular vote by five-tenths of a point and still won the electoral vote. A split decision can repeat itself in 2020, or in any presidential election. But––as a practical matter: The wider the national popular vote margin, the less likely it is that the popular vote loser would be able to overcome that deficit to win the electoral vote.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Kentucky by 30 points in 2016.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Tennessee by 26 points in 2016.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 points. While Republicans won the state in five of the last six presidential elections, Democrats believe they can turn the tables this year.
RON’S COMMENT: Most recent polls show Biden with a small lead in this crucial swing state. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans won the state three times and Democrats won it three times.
RON’S COMMENT: The Clinton-Kaine ticket won Virginia in 2016 by more than 5 points. Democrats have won the state in the last three presidential elections.
Among voters in each state
ALABAMA – Republican Primary
RON’S COMMENT: These GOP primary numbers are devastating for former AG/senator Sessions. Tuberville is a former Auburn football coach. The primary winner will face Democratic incumbent Doug Jones, who is widely viewed as vulnerable.
GEORGIA – Open Primary, Special Election
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Loeffler was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Johnny Isakson (R). The wealthy Loeffler, who has strong Wall Street ties, has been struggling with news reports about stock sales. This poll shows her running fourth in the open primary…. Collins, a conservative House member who was a vocal opponent of impeachment, is running first by a clear margin…. Republicans receive a total of 46% and Democrats get 38%. Others receive 4%…. Democrat Warnock is pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. Lieberman is the son of former senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut…. The open primary is Nov. 3 and a runoff, if needed, will be Jan. 5 among the top two finishers…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that incumbent Perdue has a race on his hands. He’s trailing Ossoff, who lost a big-spending open House race a few years ago. However, the poll has Perdue beating other Democrats by narrow 1 to 3 point margins…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
RON’S COMMENT: This poll finds Democratic challenger Kelly expanding his lead over appointed incumbent McSally. Kelly led the three previous polls by an average of a little under 8 points.
HOUSE IOWA 5, REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Among Republican primary voters districtwide
Randy Feenstra over Rep. Steve King: +2 (41-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Controversial incumbent King is in a tough race for re-election. This poll of Republican primary voters shows him trailing by 2 points––and that’s among his fellow partisans.
Among voters nationwide
Do you think 6 months from now the economy will be as it is now, going into a recession, or improving further?
Same as it is now: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 35% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats, and 52% of independents believe the economy will be in a recession in six months.
Among voters nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: Both Morning Consult and Quinnipiac polls show widespread support for a slower re-opening, even if the economy suffers. The Morning Consult poll finds that Republicans back continued social distancing despite economic implications, 53% to 34%. In the Quinnipiac poll, Republicans back a slow re-reopening despite economic ramifications, 50% to 44%.
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux