Lunchtime Politics on Twitter

LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Electoral Vote Count – Wisconsin – Re-Open: Partisan Split – China

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, May 14


Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 47% (Economist, Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Tuesday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.


Among general election voters

(CNN) Biden over Trump: +5 (51-46)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +4 (47-43)
(Reuters) Biden over Trump: +8 (46-38)
(Morning Consult) Biden over Trump: +3 (45-42)
Average: Biden +5

RON’S COMMENT: The Morning Consult poll had two interesting findings:

  • 48% of voters view Biden unfavorably, up 3 points since the Tara Reade controversy erupted, while 43% view him favorably, which is down 2 points since then.
  • Voters who dislike both Trump and Biden vote for Biden by a wide margin, 46% to 14%. That’s good news for the Democrats. In the 2016 election, voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton ultimately broke for Trump by 17 points––and that was how he won.

Biden over Trump: +3 (46-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a small lead in Wisconsin, a state Trump carried by seven-tenths of a point in 2016. In the last eight presidential elections, Democrats won Wisconsin seven times. If Biden can keep a lead in Wisconsin, it would be a big blow to Trump’s electoral vote coalition.


Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 42%/52%
Joe Biden: 43%/48%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s favorability rating is a little better than Trump’s, but not dramatically so. The Tara Reade coverage has caused some damage to Biden.


Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak? 

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 52%

RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Democrats, 87% of Republicans and 42% of independents approve of Trump’s handling of the outbreak.


Among voters nationwide

Do you think China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak led to the worldwide pandemic? 

Yes: 69%
No: 12%
Not sure: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: 52% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans say China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak led to the worldwide pandemic. Also:

  • 25% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans say a laboratory in China was the origin of the virus.
  • 20% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans say the U.S. should take some action for the express purpose of punishing China for the pandemic.


Among adults nationwide

Should each of the following places be reopened, or remain closed out of concern for coronavirus? 

% = Re-open/Remain closed

  • Public parks: 63%/30%
  • Golf courses: 51%/32%
  • Beaches: 50%/42%
  • Restaurants: 47%/45%
  • Beauty salons: 44%/47%
  • Churches: 41%/51%
  • Gyms: 33%/60%
  • NASCAR events: 33%/56%
  • Schools: 31%/62%
  • Bars: 30%/63%
  • Tattoo parlors: 29%/62%

RON’S COMMENT: Most Americans favor re-opening spread-out, open-air recreational facilities such as parks, beaches and golf courses. It’s about even for restaurants and beauty salons. But, majorities oppose re-opening churches, gyms, NASCAR, schools, bars and tattoo parlors…. There is a big partisan divide:

  • 21% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans favor re-opening churches;
  • 27% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans favor re-opening restaurants;
  • 14% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans favor re-opening bars;
  • 29% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans favor re-opening beauty salons.


Among voters nationwide

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? 

% = Democrats in Congress/Republicans in Congress

  • National security: 33%/43% (R+10)
  • The economy: 37%/41% (R+4)
  • Immigration: 38%/42% (R+4)
  • Gun policy: 38%/39% (R+1)
  • Coronavirus: 38%/33% (D+5)
  • Energy: 40%/34% (D+6)
  • Healthcare reform: 44%/34% (D+10)
  • Education: 43%/32% (D+11)
  • Harassment/misconduct in workplace: 39%/28% (D+11)
  • Protecting Social Security/Medicare: 45%/32% (D+13)
  • The environment: 48%/28% (D+20)

RON’S COMMENT: Republicans do best on national security, the economy and immigration. Democrats do best on the environment, Social Security/Medicare, harassment/misconduct in workplace, education and healthcare. Note that Democrats have a 5-point edge on handling the coronavirus.


by Ron Faucheux

Looking at state polls and other factors, this is my current electoral vote count in the race for president: Biden 280, Trump 258…. While it may change many times between now and November, it shows why Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania (three states Trump carried last time) are so important. Of course, if Florida and Wisconsin flip from red to blue––recent polls show that’s possible––then Biden’s lead would become more secure…. Note that if Trump holds Arizona’s 11 electoral votes (but still loses Pennsylvania and Michigan), we’d have a 269-269 tie.


Click here to forward this message to a friend or client.
You can sign up here to receive Lunchtime Politics in your inbox everyday. Follow LunchtimePolitics on Twitter.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Economist/YouGov, May 10-12; CNN, May 7-10
WISCONSIN: Marquette, May 3-7
CHINA AND THE PANDEMIC, RE-OPENING: The Economist/YouGov, May 10-12

Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

Subscribe Now

Contact Us
About Us
Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.