PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE
(CNN) Biden over Trump: +5 (51-46)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +4 (47-43)
(Reuters) Biden over Trump: +8 (46-38)
(Morning Consult) Biden over Trump: +3 (45-42)
Average: Biden +5

RON’S COMMENT: The Morning Consult poll had two interesting findings:

• 48% of voters view Biden unfavorably, up 3 points since the Tara Reade controversy erupted, while 43% view him favorably, which is down 2 points since then.
• Voters who dislike both Trump and Biden vote for Biden by a wide margin, 46% to 14%. That’s good news for the Democrats. In the 2016 election, voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton ultimately broke for Trump by 17 points––and that was how he won.

WISCONSIN
Biden over Trump: +3 (46-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a small lead in Wisconsin, a state Trump carried by seven-tenths of a point in 2016. In the last eight presidential elections, Democrats won Wisconsin seven times. If Biden can keep a lead in Wisconsin, it would be a big blow to Trump’s electoral vote coalition.

FAVORABILITY: TRUMP VS. BIDEN

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 42%/52%
Joe Biden: 43%/48%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s favorability rating is a little better than Trump’s, but not dramatically so. The Tara Reade coverage has caused some damage to Biden.

TRUMP HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak? 

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 52%

RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Democrats, 87% of Republicans and 42% of independents approve of Trump’s handling of the outbreak.

CHINA AND THE PANDEMIC

Among voters nationwide

Do you think China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak led to the worldwide pandemic? 

Yes: 69%
No: 12%
Not sure: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: 52% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans say China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak led to the worldwide pandemic. Also:

• 25% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans say a laboratory in China was the origin of the virus.
• 20% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans say the U.S. should take some action for the express purpose of punishing China for the pandemic.

RE-OPEN?

Among adults nationwide

Should each of the following places be reopened, or remain closed out of concern for coronavirus? 

% = Re-open/Remain closed

• Public parks: 63%/30%
• Golf courses: 51%/32%
• Beaches: 50%/42%
• Restaurants: 47%/45%
• Beauty salons: 44%/47%
• Churches: 41%/51%
• Gyms: 33%/60%
• NASCAR events: 33%/56%
• Schools: 31%/62%
• Bars: 30%/63%
• Tattoo parlors: 29%/62%

RON’S COMMENT: Most Americans favor re-opening spread-out, open-air recreational facilities such as parks, beaches and golf courses. It’s about even for restaurants and beauty salons. But, majorities oppose re-opening churches, gyms, NASCAR, schools, bars and tattoo parlors…. There is a big partisan divide:

• 21% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans favor re-opening churches;
• 27% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans favor re-opening restaurants;
• 14% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans favor re-opening bars;
• 29% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans favor re-opening beauty salons.

PARTY ISSUE HANDLING

Among voters nationwide

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? 

% = Democrats in Congress/Republicans in Congress

• National security: 33%/43% (R+10)
• The economy: 37%/41% (R+4)
• Immigration: 38%/42% (R+4)
• Gun policy: 38%/39% (R+1)
• Coronavirus: 38%/33% (D+5)
• Energy: 40%/34% (D+6)
• Healthcare reform: 44%/34% (D+10)
• Education: 43%/32% (D+11)
• Harassment/misconduct in workplace: 39%/28% (D+11)
• Protecting Social Security/Medicare: 45%/32% (D+13)
• The environment: 48%/28% (D+20)

RON’S COMMENT: Republicans do best on national security, the economy and immigration. Democrats do best on the environment, Social Security/Medicare, harassment/misconduct in workplace, education and healthcare. Note that Democrats have a 5-point edge on handling the coronavirus.

ELECTORAL VOTE TRACKER

by Ron Faucheux

Looking at state polls and other factors, this is my current electoral vote count in the race for president: Biden 280, Trump 258…. While it may change many times between now and November, it shows why Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania (three states Trump carried last time) are so important. Of course, if Florida and Wisconsin flip from red to blue––recent polls show that’s possible––then Biden’s lead would become more secure…. Note that if Trump holds Arizona’s 11 electoral votes (but still loses Pennsylvania and Michigan), we’d have a 269-269 tie.

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