19 Feb Perceptions of Race Relations Change – South Carolina, California, Oklahoma, Vermont, Maine
Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, February 19
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 44% (The Economist) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Average of seven new polls
RON’S COMMENT: Seven polls today, with Sanders building up a national lead across the board. Biden is now struggling to hold onto second place. Across today’s polling, Sanders ranges from 24% to 32%, Biden ranges from 15% to 22% and Bloomberg ranges from 12% to 20%. Bloomberg runs second in two polls, Biden runs second in four polls and they tie for second in one other poll…. Warren, who ranges from 10% to 16%, is stuck in fourth place. Neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar has caught fire nationally; Bloomberg and Biden are in their way…. The WSJ/NBC poll shows that as the race moves forward, Democrats have become less certain: 30% of Democratic primary voters say they’re “just leaning towards” a candidate,” which is higher than it was last month (27%). Also, 45% last month said they’d “definitely vote” for a certain candidate, and now that’s down to 40%.
Among Democratic voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: This is really bad news for Biden. He led every South Carolina poll for an entire year. Now, Sanders ties him in this poll with Steyer close behind and Buttigieg showing some life. If Biden doesn’t win South Carolina, he will likely have to end his campaign. The primary is Feb. 29 and 54 delegates are at stake.
RON’S COMMENT: This California poll shows Sanders leading whites with 22% and Bloomberg second with 20%; Buttigieg and Biden are tied for third among whites at 15% each…. Bloomberg is winning blacks (41%) with Sanders second (25%) and Biden third (17%)…. Sanders leads Hispanics (33%) with Bloomberg second (16%) and Biden third (15%).
RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg leads Oklahoma with Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg vying for second. The primary is March 3, Super Tuesday, and 37 delegates are at stake.
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders remains very popular in his home state, as these numbers show. The primary is March 3, Super Tuesday, and 16 delegates are at stake.
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders leads Maine with a three-way battle for second place. The primary is March 3, Super Tuesday, and 24 delegates are at stake.
RACE RELATIONS IN THE U.S.
Among voters nationwide
In general, do you think race relations in the United States are (ROTATE) very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
Very/fairly good: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: While a 55% majority say race relations are bad, that’s an improvement from four years ago, when 74% said race relations were bad…. Now: 50% of whites and 83% of blacks say race relations are bad….. Four years ago: 75% of whites and 76% of blacks said race relations were bad.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Average based on the following seven polls––Washington Post/ABC Feb. 14-17; NPR/PBS/Marist, Feb. 14-17; Emerson, Feb. 16-18; The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 16-18; WSJ/NBC, Feb. 14-17; SurveyUSA, Feb. 13-17; Morning Consult, Feb. 12-17
SOUTH CAROLINA: Change Research, Feb. 12-14
CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA for KABC/KGTV, Union-Tribune, Feb. 13-16
OKLAHOMA: CHS, Feb. 10-13
VERMONT: Vermont PBS, Feb. 4-10
MAINE: Colby College, Feb. 10-13
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux