PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

IN THE STATES
Florida: Biden +6
Arizona: Even
Georgia: Trump +3
Missouri: Trump +7
Montana: Trump +9
(CBS) Texas: Trump +1
(Dallas Morning News) Texas: Biden +5

RON’S COMMENT: All six of these states were carried by Trump last time. Based on these new polls, Biden now leads Florida, runs even in Arizona and is competitive in Texas and Georgia.

• Texas: It’s taken a while to actually believe Texas will be competitive, but evidence is mounting. The CBS poll shows a thin Trump edge, while the Dallas Morning News poll has Biden leading. The sample for the former is all registered voters and the CBS poll used a likely voter screen. Interestingly, both samples have more older voters than actual turnout in 2016, which should have worked to Trump’s advantage. FWIW: If you assume the age turnout is the same this November as it was in 2016, Biden would have a 3-point advantage in the CBS survey.
• Florida: Biden has an average 5-point lead in this critical state based on the four most recent polls. In this poll, Biden wins women 50-37, blacks 79-7 and Hispanics 61-30. Trump wins men 47-45 and whites 52-38.
• Georgia: Trump won the state by 5 points in 2016.
• Missouri: Trump won it by nearly 19 points in 2016; this new poll has it ahead by 7 points.
• Montana: Trump won the state by more than 20 points last time; this new poll has his margin about half that.
• Arizona: Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 points. While Republicans won the state in five of the last six presidential elections, Democrats believe they can turn the tables this year.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

Montana
Steve Bullock (D) over Sen. Steve Daines (R): +2 (46-44)

RON’S COMMENT: This is one to watch. Incumbent Daines has a fight on his hands. Bullock’s popularity as the state’s governor is making this a real contest…. Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Republican.

GEORGIA
Open Primary, Special election
Doug Collins (R): 26%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 24%
Raphael Warnock (D): 18%
Matt Lieberman (D): 11%
Ed Tarver (D): 9%

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Loeffler was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Johnny Isakson (R). This poll was conducted for the One America News Network…. Note that of the major candidates, Republicans receive a total of 50% and Democrats get 38%…. Democrat Warnock is pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. Lieberman is the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut…. The open primary is Nov. 3 and a runoff, if needed, will be Jan. 5 among the top two finishers…. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.

GEORGIA
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +5 (48-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Previous polls showed Democrat Ossoff with slight leads; since then, incumbent Perdue has regained the edge. This poll was conducted for the One America News Network…. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Republican.

ARIZONA
(CBS) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +4 (46-42)
(OH PI) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +9 (52-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Kelly maintains the lead. His average margin based on the last three polls is 7.3 points.

TEXAS
(CBS) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +8 (44-36)
(CBS) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over Royce West (D): +6 (43-37)
(Dallas Morning News) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +13 (42-29)
(Dallas Morning News) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over Royce West (D): +15 (43-28)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Cornyn holds a re-election advantage over both possible Democratic nominees, although he does a lot better in the Dallas Morning News poll…. The latest Dallas Morning News poll shows Democrat Hegar, a retired Air Force major, leading her primary opponent, West, a state senator, by a 35-22 margin. The primary runoff is today.

U.S. HOUSE ELECTION

Among voters statewide

Montana At-Large
Matt Rosendale (R) and Kathleen Williams (D): even (44-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Both parties are gunning for this seat. This is the second Democratic-oriented poll that shows a tie….  Democrat Williams, a former state legislator, was defeated by incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) in 2018 in a close race. Now, Gianforte is running for governor instead of re-election, opening up the seat. Rosendale is the state auditor; he lost a Senate bid in 2018. …. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.

FRENCH PRESIDENT

Among voters in France

Emmanuel Macron job rating
Based on average of two recent polls

Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 58%

RON’S COMMENT: In the 2017 presidential election, Macron received 24% of the vote in the first round and 66% in the second round. Happy Bastille Day!

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Which incumbent U.S. Senator was born in Illinois, graduated from the Univ. of Illinois at Urbana, received an MBA from DePaul Univ., co-owned a WNBA team and is married to the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange?

(See answer below)

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