TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters, The Economist, Politico) to 47% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 45%
Bernie Sanders: 32%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden has a wide lead nationally over Sanders in this first post-Super Tuesday poll. The poll was taken when Warren was still in the race, so we don’t know how her votes split between Biden and Sanders.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

Among Democratic primary voters in each state

FLORIDA PRIMARY
Joe Biden: 61%
Michael Bloomberg: 14%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: Yes, 61%. That’s not a misprint. This poll was conducted Wednesday. Of the nearly one-third of the electorate that has already voted in Florida, Biden leads with 53% and of those who plan to vote, he leads with 64%. Biden is getting 58% of whites, 68% of blacks, 60 of Hispanics, 63% of men and 60% of woman. The big Florida primary is March 17 for 219 delegates

MISSOURI PRIMARY
Joe Biden: 48%
Bernie Sanders: 44%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: The Missouri primary is March 10 for 68 delegates…. From the poll report: “Among white voters, it is a tight race as both Biden and Sanders receive 47% support. While among non-white voters, Biden leads with 50% support followed by Sanders at 36%. Regionally Biden finds his support in the St. Louis area as he leads Sanders 63% to 31% there and in the middle of the state where he leads 49% to 41%. Sanders’ strengths are in the north where he leads 57% to 40% and in the southern part of the state where he leads 48% to 40%. It appears the Kansas City area is the battleground in Missouri as Biden leads 49% to 46%.”

MISSISSIPPI: PRESIDENT

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +15 (56-41)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders: +23 (59-36)

RON’S COMMENT: No surprise here. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton in Mississippi by 58-40.

MISSISSIPPI: U.S. SENATE

Among voters statewide

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +10 (53-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Republican Hyde-Smith defeated Espy 54-46 in the 2018 special election. Espy’s vote was the best Democratic performance in a Mississippi U.S. Senate election since 1982.

SUPER TUESDAY EXIT POLLING

Average of all states voting

GENDER
Men: Biden 36%, Sanders, 32%, Bloomberg 12%, Warren 9%
Women: Biden 37%, Sanders 25%, Warren 15%, Bloomberg 13%

RACE
Whites: Biden 35%, Sanders 27%, Warren 16%, Bloomberg 13%
Blacks: Biden 58%, Sanders 17%, Bloomberg 15%, Warren 5%
Hispanic: Sanders 35%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 11%, Warren 8%

AGE
18-29: Sanders 60%, Biden 17%, Warren 11%, Bloomberg 4%
65 and older: Biden 50%, Bloomberg 18%, Sanders 15%, Warren 9%

VOTING DECISION
Decided in last few days: Biden 47%, Sanders 17%, Bloomberg 14%, Warren 14%
Decided earlier than that: Sanders 35%, Biden 29%, Warren 11%, Bloomberg 10%

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY TURNOUT

In recent presidential primary campaigns

New Hampshire
2008: 288,000
2016: 253,000
2020: 300,000

North Carolina
2008: 1.58 million
2016: 1.14 million
2020: 1.30 million

Virginia
2008: 986,000
2016: 785,000
2020: 1.32 million

ABORTION

Among voters statewide

Which comes closest to your position on abortion? Do you think abortion should be… 

Legal in all/most cases: 60%
Illegal in all/most cases: 40%

RON’S COMMENT: There is a big partisan split––85% of Democrats, 23% of Republicans and 51% of independents think abortion should be legal in all/most cases.

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