19 Jun LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Friday Special – Analysis: Trump Faces Referendum – Kentucky, Colorado, NY 16 Primaries
Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, June 19
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 42%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as yesterday), which is 14 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among voters nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: Polls keep showing Biden well ahead nationally…. In the Quinnipiac poll:
Among voters statewide
Kentucky Democratic Primary
RON’S COMMENT: McGrath had been viewed as the strong favorite for the Democratic Senate nomination and was the recipient of hefty national financial support as McConnell’s likely opponent. But lately, Booker has taken off. He’s picked up a number of local endorsements of late and has the backing of AOC and Bernie Sanders. Booker’s own polling shows him rising 32 points since January and McGrath plunging 16 points…. Today’s poll finds that Booker, a state legislator who is running to the left of McGrath, is leading primary voters who are men by 12, women by 6 and 18-34-year-olds by a whopping 48 points. The primary is June 23.
Kentucky General Election
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats think they have a chance to beat McConnell, but this poll shows that chance is a long shot. The Senate majority leader does best against McGrath, but also leads Booker by double digits. Handicappers rate the general election safe or likely Republican.
Colorado Democratic Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Former governor and presidential hopeful Hickenlooper started the Senate race as the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination, and he’s still favored. But––he’s had rocky times in recent weeks. He’s faced damaging allegations of unethical conduct and got himself into trouble on racial issues. Local operatives say Romanoff, a former state House speaker and U.S. Senate candidate who’s running to the left of Hickenlooper, has the momentum. This poll was taken for Romanoff’s campaign. National Democrats have been pumping money into the race to boost Hickenlooper. The primary is June 30 and the winner takes on GOP incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner, who is deemed vulnerable.
HOUSE: NEW YORK 16
Among Democratic primary voters districtwide
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like longtime House incumbent Engel has an uphill primary battle. Middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, the candidate of the AOC-progressive left, leads this poll. Bowman posts a big advantage with women, voters under 45 years and African Americans. The district includes the northern Bronx and the southern half of Westchester County, covering the suburban towns of Yonkers, New Rochelle, Rye and Mount Vernon.
TRUMP FACES A REFERENDUM,
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Quinnipiac: June 11-15; Fox News, June 13-16
KENTUCKY: Civiqs/Data for Progress, June 13-15
COLORADO: Myers Research for Romanoff Campaign (D), June 16-17
NY-16: Data for Progress, June 11-15Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions (such as today) when important new data becomes available. We will return to regular daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at email@example.com.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux