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24 Mar LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Global Leaders Rated – California Dreaming? – Pennsylvania GOP Primary

Posted at 16:18h in Lunchtime Politics by

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 24

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 57%

Up 2 from a week ago

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 48% (Rasmussen) to 62% (Politico). Without these extremes it would be 58%…. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 40% today (-1 from a week ago).

CALIFORNIA RECALL

Among voters statewide

Gov. Gavin Newsom rating
(Among likely recall voters)
47% favorable/37% unfavorable

Gov. Gavin Newsom recall
(Among likely recall voters)
40% favor recalling Newsom
53% oppose recalling Newsom

RON’S COMMENT: Among likely recall voters, 44% of men, 37% of women, 81% of Republicans, 17% of Democrats and 41% of independents would vote to recall Democrat Newsom.

GOVERNOR: PENNSYLVANIA 2022

Among Republican voters statewide

Republican primary for governor
Lou Barletta: 20%
Doug Mastriano: 11%
William McSwain: 3%
Dan Meuser: 3%
Jim Cawley: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: The GOP primary for governor is wide open with 60% undecided. Former U.S. Rep. Barletta is leading the field. Mastriano is a state senator, Meuser is a Congressman, McSwain is a former U.S. attorney and Cawley is former lieutenant governor.

  • Barletta is known by 67% of Republican voters (23% favorably, 11% unfavorably). He lost a 2018 Senate race to incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, 56-43.
  • Trump’s rating among Pennsylvania Republicans is 83% favorable/12% unfavorable––which means his endorsement would be a big factor.
  • A number of Democratic members of Congress and statewide officials are considering a run. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited.
  • Handicappers rate the general election a tossup/battleground.
  • Biden won the state by a 1.2-point margin.

GLOBAL LEADERS: JOB RATINGS IN THEIR COUNTRIES

Among voters in each country

% = Approve/Disapprove
Narendra Modi (India): 71%/23%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Mexico): 61%/30%
Scott Morrison (Australia): 57%/36%
Joe Biden (US): 56%/35%
Angela Merkel (Germany): 51%/43%
Justin Trudeau (Canada): 48%/45%
Boris Johnson (UK): 45%/49%
Emanuel Macron (France): 33%/58%
Yoshihide Suga (Japan): 32%/53%

RON’S COMMENT: Six of the nine leaders rated by voters in their own countries are net positive and three are net negative. Modi tops the list and Suga brings up the bottom.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GLOBAL LEADERS: JOB RATING: Morning Consult, March 16
PENNSYLVANIA: Susquehanna Polling and Research, Feb. 16-24
CALIFORNIA: Probolsky, March 16-19

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.