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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Global Leaders Rated – California Dreaming? – Pennsylvania GOP Primary

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 24


Up 2 from a week ago

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 48% (Rasmussen) to 62% (Politico). Without these extremes it would be 58%…. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 40% today (-1 from a week ago).


Among voters statewide

Gov. Gavin Newsom rating
(Among likely recall voters)
47% favorable/37% unfavorable

Gov. Gavin Newsom recall
(Among likely recall voters)
40% favor recalling Newsom
53% oppose recalling Newsom

RON’S COMMENT: Among likely recall voters, 44% of men, 37% of women, 81% of Republicans, 17% of Democrats and 41% of independents would vote to recall Democrat Newsom.


Among Republican voters statewide

Republican primary for governor
Lou Barletta: 20%
Doug Mastriano: 11%
William McSwain: 3%
Dan Meuser: 3%
Jim Cawley: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: The GOP primary for governor is wide open with 60% undecided. Former U.S. Rep. Barletta is leading the field. Mastriano is a state senator, Meuser is a Congressman, McSwain is a former U.S. attorney and Cawley is former lieutenant governor.

  • Barletta is known by 67% of Republican voters (23% favorably, 11% unfavorably). He lost a 2018 Senate race to incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, 56-43.
  • Trump’s rating among Pennsylvania Republicans is 83% favorable/12% unfavorable––which means his endorsement would be a big factor.
  • A number of Democratic members of Congress and statewide officials are considering a run. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited.
  • Handicappers rate the general election a tossup/battleground.
  • Biden won the state by a 1.2-point margin.


Among voters in each country

% = Approve/Disapprove
Narendra Modi (India): 71%/23%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Mexico): 61%/30%
Scott Morrison (Australia): 57%/36%
Joe Biden (US): 56%/35%
Angela Merkel (Germany): 51%/43%
Justin Trudeau (Canada): 48%/45%
Boris Johnson (UK): 45%/49%
Emanuel Macron (France): 33%/58%
Yoshihide Suga (Japan): 32%/53%

RON’S COMMENT: Six of the nine leaders rated by voters in their own countries are net positive and three are net negative. Modi tops the list and Suga brings up the bottom.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GLOBAL LEADERS: JOB RATING: Morning Consult, March 16
PENNSYLVANIA: Susquehanna Polling and Research, Feb. 16-24
CALIFORNIA: Probolsky, March 16-19

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.