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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Graham Leads Senate Race – Biden edges Trump in North Carolina, Georgia

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 14

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(Economist) Biden +10 (52-42-1)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +7 (50-43)
Today’s average: Biden +8.5
Average of last seven polls: Biden +8.7

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is at 50% or above in both polls…. In this new Economist poll, Biden leads registered voters by 9 points and likely voters by 10 points…. Internals from the Economist poll:

  • Biden wins women by 14 points, men by 4 points, college grads by 14 points, voters 18-29 by 27 points, voters 65+ by 1 point, Blacks by 77-3 and Hispanics 59-27.
  • Trump wins Whites 45-40 and Republicans 83-3.
  • Among voters who have already cast ballots, Biden leads by a whopping 68-29 margin.
  • Only 3% of Trump’s voters and 4% of Biden’s voters say they could still change their minds.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
NORTH CAROLINA (Reuters): Biden +1
NORTH CAROLINA (Susquehanna): Biden +2
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Biden +9
GEORGIA (WXIA): Biden +2
MISSOURI (SLU): Trump +9
WEST VIRGINIA (MetroNews): Trump +14
LOUISIANA (Trafalgar-R): Trump +18

States Clinton carried in 2016
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH): Biden +12
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Globe): Biden +10
NEVADA (LV Review Journal): Biden +2

RON’S COMMENT: Neither candidate can get a clean break in North Carolina, although Biden leads both new polls by small margins…. Michigan appears to have stabilized with Biden well ahead…. The Nevada numbers are scary for Biden, however. Other polling shows him doing better in this “must win” state for Democrats, a state that Hillary Clinton carried by 2 points…. New Hampshire is looking good for Biden, a state that was very close in 2016…. Trump’s margin in this West Virginia poll is a fraction of the 42-point lead he won by in 2016; his lead in Louisiana is about the same as it was in 2016.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s Senate polls (below) show––

  • Democratic challengers in Colorado and Arizona are winning by clear margins.
  • The North Carolina race is fairly close, but Democrat Cunningham leads all three new polls despite the sexting scandal.
  • Republican incumbents still lead Georgia (regular election) and Texas, which remains stable.
  • In the Georgia special election, appointed incumbent Loeffler is building a lead over Collins for second spot.
  • In South Carolina, polls and money convinced pundits that the Senate race had become a tie, sitting on the edge. Three of the four recent polls had it even and one had GOP incumbent Graham ahead by a single point. But this new poll has Graham ahead by 6 points, which gives him more cushion than any public poll since July.
  • The Democratic incumbent in Michigan is doing much better in today’s polls than in other recent surveys.

SOUTH CAROLINA 
(Morning Consult) Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +6 (48-42)

NORTH CAROLINA 
(Morning Consult) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +6 (47-41)
(Reuters) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +4 (46-42)
(Susquehanna) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +2 (46-44)

COLORADO
(Morning Consult) John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R): +10 (50-40)

MICHIGAN 
(Morning Consult) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +9 (49-40)
(Reuters) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +8 (52-44)

TEXAS
(Morning Consult) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +9 (47-38)

ARIZONA 
(Morning Consult) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +8 (49-41)

GEORGIA Regular Election 
(Morning Consult) Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +4 (46-42)
(WXIA) Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +3 (46-43)

GEORGIA Special Election; Open Primary (WXIA)
Raphael Warnock (D): 30%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 26%
Doug Collins (R): 20%
Matt Lieberman (D): 8%
Ed Tarver (D): 3%

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: IBD/TIPP, Oct. 9-13; The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 11-13
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.