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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Impeachment – The Fed – Warren Closes In – New Hampshire, Nevada, Maryland



Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 25


Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Quinnipiac) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 since Friday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Emerson/Politico/Quinnipiac = Average
Joe Biden: 25%/32%/25% = 27.3
Elizabeth Warren: 23%/20%/27% = 23.3
Bernie Sanders: 22%/19%/16% = 19
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/5%/7% = 6
Andrew Yang: 8%/3%/2% = 4.3
Kamala Harris: 4%/6%/3% = 4.3
Beto O’Rourke: 1%/3%/2% = 2
Cory Booker: 2%/3%/- = 1.7
Amy Klobuchar: -/2%/2% = 1.3
Julian Castro: 2%/-/2% = 1.3
Candidates with 1% or less in all three polls not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The average of these three polls keeps Biden in first place, but with Warren closing in on him. In fact, she’s leading in the Quinnipiac poll, 27-25. Since last month’s Quinnipiac poll, Biden dropped 7 points and Warren went up 8 points. Note that Yang ties Harris in the three-poll average and eclipses O’Rourke and Booker…. Ideology: Warren beats Biden 36-13 among the most liberal Democrats (Sanders gets 23%), while Biden beats Warren among moderates, 31-21…. Excitement: 56% of Democrats say they’d be excited if Biden is the nominee, while 70% say so about Warren.


Among Democratic voters in each state

New Hampshire Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 27%
Joe Biden: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: New polls show Warren running first in both Iowa and New Hampshire. In this New Hampshire poll, there is a big gap between Warren and Biden on top and the rest of the pack. Sanders slipped to a distant third in this survey, while Buttigieg remains a player. Since May, Warren has gone up 19 points in New Hampshire, while Biden dropped 11 points…. 61% of New Hampshire Democrats continue to say they prefer a nominee who can beat Trump over one who agrees with them on issues, and that sentiment is keeping Biden in the race…. On favorability, Biden dropped from 80% in May to 66% now. Warren increased from 63% in May to 74% now. Sanders dropped from 73% to 63%. Buttigieg went up from 54% to 62%….In New Hampshire, 23% of Democratic primary voters want to get rid of private health insurance in favor of Medicare-for-all, while 56% want to allow people to opt into Medicare or keep their private insurance. Of that 56%, 35% always want an option to buy private insurance, but 19% favor the private option while the country eventually moves to a Medicare-for-all system.

Nevada Caucus
Joe Biden: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Biden first and Warren second in Nevada. An earlier poll completed in the first week of September had Sanders first, Biden second and Warren third…. On healthcare, 35% of Democrats polled say they want to scrap the current healthcare system and move to Medicare-for-all, while 54% want to reform Obamacare.

Maryland Primary
Joe Biden: 33%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden beats Warren in Maryland 33-21, although Warren’s favorability among Democrats is higher (68% vs. 62%).


Among voters nationwide

Do you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don’t you think so?

Yes, impeach/remove: 37%
No: 57%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken as the Ukrainian story was breaking (Thursday through Monday), but before Pelosi’s announcement, yesterday to move forward with impeachment. It shows that 4% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats and 34% of independents favor impeachment and removal. Keep a close eye on polls over the next few days to see whether events and intense news coverage move independents, lead to Republican defections and further harden Democratic support for impeachment.


Among voters statewide

Some people believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution that does its job without influence from politicians/politics. Others believe the Federal Reserve is influenced by politicians/politics when it makes its decisions. Which comes closest to your point of view?

The Federal Reserve is influenced by politicians/politics: 49%
The Federal Reserve is an independent institution: 30%
Don’t know: 21%

RON’A COMMENT: 49% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans and 43% of independents say the Fed is influenced by politicians/politics.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Emersion, Sept. 21-23; Politico/Morning Consult, Sept. 16-22; Quinnipiac, Sept. 19-23
IMPEACHMENT: Quinnipiac, Sept. 19-23
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Monmouth University,Sept. 17-21
NEVADA: USA Today/Suffolk, Sept. 19-23
MARYLAND: Goucher College, Sept. 13-19
THE FED: Ipsos, Sept. 10-16

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.