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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Indiana, Florida – Distancing, Shelter-In-Place – Trust Coronavirus Info – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 21

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same as Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 45% (Economist) to 49% (Harvard). Without these extremes, the average would still be 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 since Thursday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating…. Note: Last week we had a typo––we said Trump’s disapproval was 27 points higher than his approval rating; it should have been 7 points. Our regret.

See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE
(WSJ/NBC) Biden over Trump: +7 (49-42)
(Harvard) Biden over Trump: +6 (53-47)
Average: Biden +6.5

RON’S COMMENT: The average of these two new polls gives Biden a 6.5-point edge. The average of the last six polls gives Biden a 4.5-point lead.

FLORIDA
Biden and Trump: even (48-48)

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the three previous Florida polls showed Biden barely ahead by a thin three-tenths of a point…. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans won the state three times and Democrats won it three times…. Internal data from this new poll:

  • Biden beats Trump 80-16 among Democrats and 48-46 among independents.
  • Trump beats Biden 80-17 among Republicans.
  • 49% of Florida voters approve of Trump’s overall job performance and 53% approve of Republican Gov. DeSantis’ overall performance.
  • 48% approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus and 48% approve of DeSantis on the issue.

INDIANA
Trump over Biden: +13 (52-39-5)

RON’S COMMENT: Indiana is solidly in Trump’s camp. Four years ago, Trump won Indiana by 19 points. Indiana voted Republican in 12 of the last 13 elections.

INDIANA: GOVERNOR

Among voters statewide

Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) over Woody Myers (D): +20 (45-25-L8)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Republican governor Holcomb posts a wide lead for re-election. Democrat Myers is a businessman and former state health commissioner. A Libertarian is getting 8%…. Handicappers rate the race safe to likely Republican.

DISTANCING/SHELTER-IN-PLACE

Among voters nationwide

Social distancing: Do you think mitigation efforts such as the 45 days of social distancing ordered by the White House coronavirus taskforce are working or not working? 

Working: 80%
Not working: 20%

RON’S COMMENT: A giant majority of voters say social distancing is working.

Shelter-in-place: Do you think we have “flattened the curve” allowing the healthcare system to handle the response to the coronavirus crisis so we can begin going back to work or do we need to continue shelter-in-place orders across the country? 

Begin going back to work: 36%
Continue shelter-in-place across the country: 64%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters favor continuing shelter-in-place policies nationwide.

TRUMP AND CORONAVIRUS

Among voters and adults nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove
(ABC): 44%/54%
(WSJ/NBC): 44%/52%
(Harvard): 51%/49%
Average approval: 46.3%
Average disapproval: 51.7%

RON’S COMMENT: We have convergence of Trump’s average overall job rating (46%, see above) and his average rating handling coronavirus (46.3%).

CORONAVIRUS: TRUST INFORMATION SOURCES

Among voters nationwide

In general, do you trust what (READ ITEM) has said about the coronavirus or not? 

% = Trust/Don’t trust
CDC: 69%/13%
Your state’s governor: 66%/20%
Anthony Fauci: 60%/8%
Andrew Cuomo: 46%/17%
Donald Trump: 36%/52%
Mike Pence: 35%/37%
Joe Biden: 26%/29%

RON’S COMMENT: The medical experts (CDC, Fauci) and the governors have the highest net trust levels as sources of information on coronavirus. Trump, Pence and Biden are all net negative.

TRUMP VS. BIDEN: ON ISSUES

Among voters nationwide

I would like you to compare Donald Trump and Joe Biden on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be better on that issue. If you think that both would be equally good or that neither would be good on a particular item, just say so. 

% = Trump/Biden
Dealing with the economy: 47%/36%
Having the ability to handle a crisis: 38%/47%
Responding to the coronavirus: 36%/45%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads on the economy, but Biden leads on crisis management and the coronavirus. Note that neither candidate cracks 50% on any issue tested.

CORONAVIRUS: RATING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Among voters nationwide

Now I’d like to ask you about your satisfaction with how the federal government has been dealing with the coronavirus. When it comes to … would you say that you are or are not satisfied with the federal government? 

% = Satisfied/Dissatisfied

  • Implementing measures to limit the spread of coronavirus: 50%/48%
  • Providing those who have lost a job or otherwise been negatively impacted with financial assistance: 49%/44%
  • Providing Americans with reassurance and direction during this uncertain period: 46%/51%
  • Ensuring that there are enough medical supplies to treat the coronavirus like ventilators and protective gear for doctors and nurses: 34%/62%
  • Ensuring that there is enough testing to determine how far the coronavirus has spread: 34%/64%

RON’S COMMENT: The federal government’s rating only hits 50% on implementing measures to limit the spread of coronavirus. On other issues, it falls below 50%. It’s weakest on medical supplies and testing (34% each).

TUESDAY TRIVIA

When was the last time the Prohibition Party received any popular votes in a presidential election?

(See answer below)

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NATIONWIDE, TRUST INFORMATION SOURCES ON CORONAVIRUS , TRUMP VS. BIDEN, CORONAVIRUS: RATING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: WSJ/NBC, April 13-15
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, April 16-17
INDIANA: Indy Politics/Change (D), April 10-13
DISTANCING/SHELTER-IN-PLACE:Harvard-Harris, April 14-16TRIVIA ANSWER2016. The Prohibition Party’s presidential candidate in 2016 was James Hedges, a former Tax Assessor for Thompson Township (Fulton County) Pennsylvania. He received 5,617 votes for president nationwide.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.