Among voters in each state
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +1 (44-43)
COMMENT: This poll confirms what other polls have been indicating––incumbent Graham has a fight on his hands. Interestingly, in this poll, Democrat Harrison’s vote (43%) is slightly below what Biden is polling (44%) in the state…. Handicappers rate the race likely Republican.
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) over Theresa Greenfield (D): +1 (48-47-3)
RON’S COMMENT: This is a barn burner and the outcome could depend upon the presidential race. Incumbent Ernst posts a 1-point lead, which is based on a high turnout “likely voter” model. Among all registered voters, Ernst’s lead is 3 points…. The previous poll we reported had Democrat Greenfield, a businesswoman and former U.S. House candidate, up by 3 points…. Handicappers rate the race a tossup…. Excerpts from the Monmouth poll report:
- “The poll also finds that 40% of Iowa voters say it is very likely they will vote by mail rather than in person this November. Another 17% are somewhat likely to do this, 12% are not too likely, and 30% are not at all likely. All active voters will receive a vote-by-mail application for the 2020 general election.
- “Most Democrats (61%) say they are very likely to vote by mail this year, compared to just 19% of Republicans. Just under half (43%) of independents are very likely to vote by mail.
- “Overall, 41% of Iowa voters are very confident that their mail ballot, if they choose to vote this way, will be counted accurately (61% of Democrats, 38% of independents, and 29% of Republicans). However, 32% are very concerned that conducting the November election mainly by mail will lead to voter fraud (59% of Republicans, 27% of independents, and 7% of Democrats).”
Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +17 (52-35)
RON’S COMMENT: The Alabama race is shaping up to be a Republican gain, with Democratic incumbent Jones running well behind Tuberville, who recently defeated Jeff Sessions for the GOP nomination. Interestingly, Jones’ vote (35%) is slightly below what Biden is polling (36%) in the state…. Tuberville, a former Auburn Tigers head coach, had President Trump’s support in the primary runoff…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +6 (44-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Previous polls had been showing incumbent Cornyn with a somewhat larger lead over Hegar, a retired air force major…. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.