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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Iowa, Pennsylvania, California, North Carolina – Trump vs. Generic Democrat



Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 9


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+2 since yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 

Democratic candidate: 48% (-2 since last week)
Trump: 39% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 9 points, down from 12 points last week.


Among voters statewide

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +8 (49-41)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (47-43)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +1 (44-43)
Donald Trump over Kamala Harris: +1 (44-43)

RON’S COMMENT: North Carolina has become a presidential swing state that Trump carried last time 50-46. This poll shows three Democrats leading him, with Biden doing best…. In the trial heat against Biden, Trump is winning men by 2 points, losing women by 18 points, winning whites by 17 points and losing blacks 76-9.


Among Democratic caucusgoers/primary voters in each state

Joe Biden: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds first place in Iowa and Warren, now second, is leaving Sanders in the dust. Warren, who moved up 12 points since April, still has room for more growth: She has the best favorability rating among Democrats in the state: 76% favorable/14% unfavorable. While Biden maintains the voter support he had in April, his favorable rating has slipped from 78% to 73%. Sanders is 58% favorable/33% unfavorable, a decline from 67%-26% four months ago…. Recent entrant Steyer now leads O’Rourke and Booker, and ties Klobuchar, in Iowa.

Joe Biden: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Kamala Harris: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This California poll is bad news for Harris. After five weeks of heavy media attention, she’s running fourth in her home state. This big, early primary offers a boatload of delegates…. Electability: 43% of primary voters say Biden has the best chance to defeat Trump, while 15% say Warren, 14% say Sanders and 10% say Harris…. Among African American voters, Harris leads with 39%, Biden is second with 31% and Sanders is third at 17%. Among Hispanics, Biden (26%) and Sanders (24%) are battling for the lead. Warren is third at 18%…. Recent entrant Steyer now leads O’Rourke and Booker, and ties Klobuchar, in California.

Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a wide lead in this primary. Among African American voters, Biden wipes out the field: He wins 57%, followed by Sanders (10%), Warren (7%) and Harris (5%). Harris does much better with North Carolina’s whites (9%) and Hispanics (11%) than blacks…. Biden’s strength is generational: He gets 58% of voters 65 and older, while his support level among voters 18-34 is 22% and 27% among voters 35-49.

Joe Biden: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads Pennsylvania, the state where he was born. But Warren is narrowing the gap, now running a respectable second. Warren also leads among second choice votes.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 3-6
IOWA: Monmouth, Aug. 1-4
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, July 29-Aug. 4
NORTH CAROLINA: SurveyUSA/Civitas, Aug. 1-5

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux
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Andrew Rugg

Andrew Rugg is an expert in survey research, media analytics, and qualitative research projects. Before leading the team at Certus, he lead a fully integrated research department at a public relations agency.