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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Job Security – Mail-in Ballots – Favorability Ratings

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 27

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Politico) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

HOW IKE LED
By Susan Eisenhower

Published by Thomas Dunne Books

Few people have made decisions as momentous as Dwight Eisenhower—from World War II to the early years of the Cold War. In many of his roles he was the first to take on the responsibility—from the first supreme commander of unified forces in Europe during World War II, the first Supreme Commander of NATO after the war, and the first president of the space age. He brought to his responsibilities, integrity, principled leadership, accountability, and a determination to forge unity of purpose.
How Ike Led shows us not just what this consequential American did, but why—and what we can learn from him today.
Said former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates: “Susan Eisenhower’s How Ike Led distills from her grandfather’s life the enduring qualities of successful leadership…. with lessons highly relevant and desperately needed for current and aspiring leaders, especially those in public life.”
To purchase the book, click here

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(The Hill) Biden +9
Average of four polls conducted after Democratic “convention”: Biden + 8.8 points

RON’S COMMENT: Biden received no discernible national polling bounce from his party’s “convention,” but he still maintains a clear lead. Next week, we’ll see polls taken after both “conventions.”

In the States

State carried by Trump in 2016
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden +7

RON’S COMMENT: This is good news for Biden, showing a clear lead in Pennsylvania, his birth state. However, much of this Franklin & Marshall College poll was conducted during the Democratic “convention,” both before and after Biden’s speech, which diminishes its use as an analytical tool.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters statewide

SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state

MASSACHUSETTS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
(Suffolk Univ.) Sen. Ed Markey (D) over Joe Kennedy (D): +10 (51-41)
(Data for Progress-D) Sen. Ed Markey (D) over Joe Kennedy (D): +7 (50-43)

COMMENT: Kennedy started his Senate primary campaign as the frontrunner, but his position has deteriorated over time; he was 17 points ahead a year ago. Markey, who is running to Kennedy’s left, is leading recent polls with clear margins. The primary is Sept. 1.

NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +10 (52-42)

COMMENT: Democrat Cunningham has led every poll since late June. The prior three polls had him averaging a 3-point lead, so this wider margin is welcome news to his campaign. Handicappers, who remain reluctant to give Cunningham the edge, rate the race a tossup.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 44%/55%
Joe Biden: 48%/49%
Mike Pence: 45%/50%
Kamala Harris: 48%/46%
Nancy Pelosi: 41%/54%
Mitch McConnell: 32%/54%
Democratic Party: 47%/50%
Republican Party: 40%/56%

RON’S COMMENT: The above show us the numbers among all voters. Let’s also look at how these public figures and political parties are doing among only independents, who are most likely to be swing voters in the election: Trump 40%/54%, Biden 36%/55%, Pence 37%/47%, Harris 34%/48%, Pelosi 27%/61%, McConnell 26%/48%, Democratic Party 30%/54% and Republican Party 33%/51%. Note that Trump does a little better with independents than does Biden.

MAIL-IN BALLOTS: PUBLIC CONFIDENCE

Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the upcoming election, how confident are you in each of the following …. ?

That all mail-in ballots that are sent by their state’s deadline will be received by the state board of elections on time.
Very + somewhat confident: 41%
Not that confident + not confident at all: 47%

COMMENT: 45% of Democrats, 38% of Republicans and 38% of independents are confident that all mail-in ballots that are sent by their state’s deadline will be received by the state board of elections on time.

That the USPS will be able to process all of the mailed ballots for the November general election.
Very + somewhat confident: 49%
Not that confident + not confident at all: 43%

COMMENT: 49% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans and 41% of independents are confident that the post office will be able to process all of the mailed ballots for the November general election.

That President Trump will not interfere with mail-in voting.
Very + somewhat confident: 36%
Not that confident + not confident at all: 50%

COMMENT: 13% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 34% of independents are confident that President Trump will not interfere with mail-in voting.

JOB SECURITY IN THE PANDEMIC

Among voters nationwide

Job SecurityRate the current state of your own job security?

Excellent: 28%
Good: 42%
Not so good + poor: 29%

Lost Job: Have you or someone in your household lost your job or been furloughed as a result of the coronavirus outbreak?

Yes, me personally or someone in my household: 36%
No: 64%

COMMENT: Seven-out-of-ten voters rate their job security as “excellent” or “good,” although a lot more say “good” than “excellent.” This means that nearly three-in-ten rate their job security “not so good” or “poor”––which represents about 40 million voters who are facing a shaky employment situation…. Also: More than a third of voters report that they, or someone in their households, have lost a job or been furloughed as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

RETURNING TO SCHOOL

Among parents with a child in K-12 school

[Asked of parents of K-12 students] How are your children returning to school this year?

  • Full-time in-person instruction: 21%
  • A mix of in-person and virtual learning: 31%
  • Full-time virtual learning: 48%

[Asked of parents of K-12 students] Thinking about returning to school, which of the following apply to you? Select all that apply.

  • My child’s school gave parents a choice about how to return to school: 73%
  • I will need to quit a job or work fewer hours if schools don’t reopen this year: 33%
  • I rely on my child’s school to provide meals: 12%
  • I lack a reliable internet connection for virtual learning: 11%

COMMENT: Nearly three-fourths of parents say their child’s school gave parents a choice about how to return to school. A third say they will need to quit a job or work fewer hours if schools don’t reopen.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: The Hill/HarrisX, Aug. 22-25
MASSACHUSETTS SENATE: Data for Progress (D), Aug. 24-25; Suffolk Univ., Aug. 23-25
NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: CNBC/Change Research (D), Aug. 21-23
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 23-25
MAIL-IN BALLOTS: Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 21 – 23
RETURNING TO SCHOOL, JOB SECURITY IN THE PANDEMIC: CNBC/Change Research (D), Aug. 21 – 23

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.