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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Louisiana Governor – Black Democrats Favor Biden – Whistleblower Rated – Tuesday Trivia

 

 


Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 8

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: During this ferocious impeachment controversy, Trump still hangs on to his base, but his opposition keeps solidifying. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating…. A week ago, his disapproval rating was 8 points above his approval rating, now it’s 12.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The Politico/Morning Consult poll keeps Biden in the game. Most of the recent national polls have had Warren overtaking the former VP, but this Politico/Morning Consult poll shows Biden holding a clear lead. In fact, over the past week, it shows Biden going up a point––and he’s the only candidate who did go up…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 33%, then Sanders and Warren each with 18%.

Average of the last four national polls:
Joe Biden: 26.5
Elizabeth Warren: 26
Bernie Sanders: 14.3
Kamala Harris: 4.8
Pete Buttigieg: 6
Andrew Yang: 2.8
Beto O’Rourke: 2.3
Cory Booker: 1.3

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last four polls show a near tie for first place with a sizable gap between the two top contenders and third-place finisher, Sanders.

LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR

Among voters statewide

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D): 45%
Eddie Rispone (R): 22%
Ralph Abraham (R): 17%
Others: 6%
Undecided: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: The open primary is this Saturday. The big question is whether incumbent Edwards, a Democrat, can win an outright majority without being forced into a runoff. As you can see, he’s tying the field 45-45 in this poll. GOP Congressman Abraham started off in second place, but the expensive ad campaign run by self-funder Rispone has changed the dynamics. Rispone has gone after fellow Republican Abraham while tying himself to Donald Trump. If the race goes into a runoff, strategists from both sides fear Edwards could be at risk. Trump carried Louisiana in 2016 by nearly 20 points…. This Mason-Dixon poll also tested runoff scenarios that show Edwards over Rispone +9 and Edwards over Abraham +15…. This poll shows Edwards is personally popular, with a job rating of 56% approve/34% disapprove…. Trump’s job rating in Louisiana is 51% approve/45% disapprove. Also, 35% of the state’s voters favor impeaching Trump, while 57% oppose doing so.

AFRICAN AMERICAN DEMOCRATS

Among black Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Cory Booker: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Pete Buttigieg: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll of black Democrats nationwide shows Biden with a big lead. He does a little better with black men than women (38% vs. 34%). Black voters 18-34 years old give Biden and Sanders 21% each.

FAVORABILITY OF WHISTLEBLOWER

Among voters nationwide

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the whistleblower? 

Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 35%

RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the whistleblower in the Trump-Ukraine affair.

TRUMP’S FIRST INTERESTS

Among voters nationwide

Whose interests do you think Donald Trump puts first? 

The interests of the U.S.: 38%
His business interests: 49%
Business interests same as U.S. interests: 7%
Not sure: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: Only 38% of voters think Trump puts the country’s interests ahead of his own business interests––and 7% of Democrats, 29% of independents and 73% of Republicans agree.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

What was the first public office to which Joe Biden was elected?

(see answer below)

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Sept. 30-Oct. 5
TRUMP’S FIRST INTERESTS, WHISTLEBLOWER FAVORABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 28-Oct. 1
AFRICAN AMERICAN DEMOCRATS: The Hill/HarrisX, Sept. 18-23
LOUISIANA: Mason-Dixon, Oct. 1-4

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

TRIVIA ANSWER

Joe Biden was first elected to the New Castle County Council, Delaware, in 1969.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


 

Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.