Among general election voters
Biden over Trump (GU/Battleground): +13 (53-40)
Biden over Trump (Monmouth): +10 (51-41-3)
Average of last four polls: Biden +8.8
RON’S COMMENT: These two polls show Biden with wide leads, although quite a few political operatives from both parties find the 13-point lead more difficult to believe…. In the Monmouth poll, 58% of voters say it’s a good idea to make it easier to cast ballots by mail this year and 37% say this is a bad idea. 90% of Democrats and 60% of independents say expanding vote-by-mail is a good idea, but only 20% of Republicans (20%) agree…. The Georgetown Univ./Battleground poll finds that:
- Biden’s rating is 45% favorable/50% unfavorable. (In the Monmouth poll, it’s 42/47).
- Trump’s rating is 41% favorable/55% unfavorable. (In the Monmouth poll, it’s 40/54).
- 72% of voters say the country is off on the wrong track and only 22% say it’s on the right track.
- Trump’s rating on the economy is 50% approve/44% disapprove. However, his rating on handling economic recovery is 47% approve/50% disapprove. (The difference makes for interesting message nuance.)
- Trump’s rating on immigration is 42% approve/56% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on foreign affairs is 41% approve/53% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on the pandemic is 38% approve/60% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on healthcare is 38% approve/56% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on dealing with protests and race relations is 36% approve/61% disapprove.
- Worst news for Trump: Biden leads Trump on “confidence” in dealing with all of these issues––by 5 points on economic recovery, by 18 points on healthcare, by 18 points on the pandemic and by 23 points on protests and race relations.
- Note: Nate Cohn of the NYT points out that the GU/Battleground poll sample appears skewed toward more educated voters. He says 63% of the sample has a college degree. For comparison, 2016 exit polling showed college grads made up 50% of the electorate
IN THE STATES
States Trump carried in 2016:
ARIZONA (OH Pred.): Biden +4
ARIZONA (Trafalgar): Trump +1
PENNSYLVANIA (UofWis): Biden +9
PENNSYLVANIA (CBS): Biden +6
WISCONSIN (UofWis): Biden +6
WISCONSIN (CBS): Biden +6
MICHIGAN: Biden +4
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump +1
GEORGIA: Biden +2
States Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA: Biden +3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts clear leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two critical states. He has a modest lead in Michigan…. Any lead for Biden in Georgia is a good lead for him, even a small one…. Arizona is split, Trump edges Biden in one poll (conducted by a Republican-oriented firm) and Biden leads the other poll. The North Carolina poll that puts Trump ahead by 1 point was taken by Rasmussen, which often shows Trump doing better than other polls…. Biden leads Minnesota, a state that Hillary Clinton won by less than 2 points…. Here are the averages of the last three polls in each state: Arizona Biden +1.7; Pennsylvania Biden +5.7; Wisconsin Biden +6.3; Michigan Biden +6.3; Georgia +0.7; North Carolina Trump +2; and Minnesota Biden +7.