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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: New Senate Polls – Russian Bounty – Presidential Statues – Closing Economies – Biden Leads Six Key States

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, July 2

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%

Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP, Politico) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 41%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (-1 from Tuesday), which is 15 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +8 (49-41)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +9 (49-40)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden over Trump: +8 (48-40)
(USA Today) Biden over Trump: +12 (53-41)
Average: Biden +9.3

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a hefty 9-point average lead nationwide….How does this popular vote lead translate into electoral votes? As we know, Clinton led Trump 48% to 46% in the 2016 popular vote, and third-parties collected six percent. Trump was able to survive that two-point deficit by narrowly carrying key swing states, which gave him all of their electoral votes. Trump won Michigan by two-tenths of a point, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point and Florida by 1.2 points––and picked up 75 electoral votes, more than enough to win the Electoral College. But can Trump’s narrow swing-state margins survive a wider national popular vote deficit? For example––if Trump holds his 46% base (which is more than he’s now polling) and the third-party vote drops to 3%, that leaves 51% of the popular vote for Biden. Such a 5-point Biden lead could overwhelm Trump’s vote in key states in ways that Clinton’s 2-point nationwide lead couldn’t. Of course, a 9-point Biden lead is that much harder to overcome––which the following state polls indicate.

KEY STATES
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
Michigan: Biden +5
Wisconsin: Biden +8
North Carolina: Biden +7 (CNBC)
North Carolina: Biden +1 (ECU)
Florida: Biden +5
Arizona: Biden +7

RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried all six of these states in 2016. This new batch of polls from CNBC show Biden now leading in all six. Interestingly, Trump’s vote percentage in these states are within a tight range between 43% and 45%…. It should be noted that the East Carolina Univ. poll has Biden only 1 point ahead in North Carolina.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters statewide

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +9 (53-44)

NORTH CAROLINA
(CNBC) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +10 (51-41)
(ECU) Cal Cunningham (D) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R): even (41-41-8)

MICHIGAN
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +7 (49-42)

COMMENT: The Arizona and Michigan polls are in line with other recent polling we’ve seen. Arizona continues to be a big problem for Republicans. Low-profile incumbent Peters remains the favorite in Michigan, although Republican James is not that far down…. The size of Democrat Cunningham’s lead in the CNBC poll is hard to believe; other polls have shown a much closer race. The East Carolina University poll has the race a tie––and shows 8% voting for third candidates with 10% undecided. The CNBC poll has about 8% undecided without anyone voting for third candidates…. Handicappers rate North Carolina as “tossup,” Arizona as “lean D/tossup,” and Michigan as “lean D.”

RUSSIAN BOUNTY REPORT

Among voters nationwide

From what you know now, do you believe the U.S. intelligence report that said Russia secretly offered militants in Afghanistan rewards for killing U.S. troops there, or not? 

Believes the intelligence report: 55%
Does not believe the intelligence report: 13%
Not sure: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Biden supporters and 39% of Trump supporters say they believe the bounty report.

CLOSING ECONOMIES AGAIN

Among voters nationwide

Would you support or oppose some of the states that have reopened sectors of their economy closing again do to COVID-19 concerns? 

Support closing again: 60%
Oppose closing again: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: 72% of Biden supporters and 45% of Trump supporters support some of the states that have reopened sectors of their economy closing again.

PRESIDENTIAL STATUES

Among voters nationwide

Should statues of American presidents who were slaveholders, like Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson, be removed? 

Yes, should be removed: 18%
No, should not be removed: 62%
Not sure: 20%

RON’S COMMENT: Only 28% of Biden supporters and 4% of Trump supporters support removing Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson statues…. Independents oppose removing the statues 56-16…. Another poll question found that 77% of voters would oppose removing any presidential faces from Mount Rushmore.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: CNBC/Change (D), June 26-28; The Economist/YouGov, June 28-30; IBD/TIPP, June 27-30; USA Today/Suffolk, June 27-30
PRESIDENTIAL STATES: CNBC/Change (D), June 26-28
SENATE: CNBC/Change (D), June 26-28
RUSSIAN BOUNTY REPORT, CLOSING ECONOMIES AGAIN, PRESIDENTIAL STATUES: The Economist/YouGov, June 28-30

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.