Among general election voters
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +8 (49-41)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +9 (49-40)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden over Trump: +8 (48-40)
(USA Today) Biden over Trump: +12 (53-41)
Average: Biden +9.3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a hefty 9-point average lead nationwide….How does this popular vote lead translate into electoral votes? As we know, Clinton led Trump 48% to 46% in the 2016 popular vote, and third-parties collected six percent. Trump was able to survive that two-point deficit by narrowly carrying key swing states, which gave him all of their electoral votes. Trump won Michigan by two-tenths of a point, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point and Florida by 1.2 points––and picked up 75 electoral votes, more than enough to win the Electoral College. But can Trump’s narrow swing-state margins survive a wider national popular vote deficit? For example––if Trump holds his 46% base (which is more than he’s now polling) and the third-party vote drops to 3%, that leaves 51% of the popular vote for Biden. Such a 5-point Biden lead could overwhelm Trump’s vote in key states in ways that Clinton’s 2-point nationwide lead couldn’t. Of course, a 9-point Biden lead is that much harder to overcome––which the following state polls indicate.
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
Michigan: Biden +5
Wisconsin: Biden +8
North Carolina: Biden +7 (CNBC)
North Carolina: Biden +1 (ECU)
Florida: Biden +5
Arizona: Biden +7
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried all six of these states in 2016. This new batch of polls from CNBC show Biden now leading in all six. Interestingly, Trump’s vote percentage in these states are within a tight range between 43% and 45%…. It should be noted that the East Carolina Univ. poll has Biden only 1 point ahead in North Carolina.