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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: One Poll, Two Results – Protests – Missouri – Worry About Virus – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 2

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as Saturday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Politico) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Saturday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE
(WAPO/ABC, all voters) Biden over Trump: +10 (53-43)
(WAPO/ABC, voters certain to vote) Biden over Trump: +5 (51-46)
(CBS): Biden over Trump: +4 (47-43-4)

RON’S COMMENT: The new Washington Post/ABC poll shows Biden leading by 10 points among all voters. But, his lead falls to 5 points among voters who say they’re certain to vote. Most media reports have focused on the 10-point lead, not the sample showing a 5-point lead…. The CBS poll gives Biden a 4-point advantage. Other findings:

  • Trump’s rating on handling the Minneapolis protests and events is 34% approve/49% disapprove (CBS).
  • Trump’s personal rating is 42% favorable/56% unfavorable versus Biden’s at 46% favorable/51% unfavorable (WAPO/ABC).
  • Enthusiasm gap: 87% of Trump backers are enthusiastic about voting for him, while 74% of Biden supporters say they are enthusiastic about voting for their candidate (WAPO/ABC).

MISSOURI
Trump over Biden: +4 (48-44-3)

RON’S COMMENT:  If this poll is accurate, it shows Trump’s advantage has weakened in Missouri since the 2016 election when he carried the state by almost 19 points. Missouri has voted Republican in the last five presidential elections.

MISSOURI: GOVERNOR

Among voters statewide

Gov. Mike Parson (R) over Nicole Galloway (D): +8 (47-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent GOP governor Parson posts a clear lead over state auditor Galloway…. 48% say they trust Parson more to grow the economy, compared to 32% for Galloway…. Parson took office two years ago when then-Gov. Eric Greitens (R) resigned…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.

FLOYD PROTESTS

Among adults nationwide

In general, do you support or oppose each of the following during the ongoing protests in response to the death of George Floyd and others in the African American community?

The protest in general 
Support: 54%
Oppose: 22%
Neither: 17%
Don’t know: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats, 39% of Republicans, 49% of independents, 49% of whites and 77% of blacks support the protests in general.

The protesters
Support: 44%
Oppose: 31%
Neither: 18%
Don’t know: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: Note that fewer Americans support the “protesters” than support the “protests in general.” 63% of Democrats, 26% of Republicans, 41% of independents, 40% of whites and 73% of blacks support the protesters.

Which of the following comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? 

  1. Most of the current protesters are peaceful and want to bring about meaningful social reform, even though some are trying to incite violence or destroy property: 45%
  2. Most of the current protesters are trying to incite violence or destroy property, even though some are peaceful and want to bring about meaningful social reform: 42%

RON’S COMMENT: The nation is split between these two points of view, with the first statement leading by a small margin. 63% of Democrats, 32% of Republicans, 37% of independents, 43% of whites and 53% of blacks prefer the first statement. On the other hand, 29% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans, 40% of independents, 44% of whites and 31% of blacks prefer the second statement.

TRUMP HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS

Among voters nationwide

WAPO/ABC poll:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the coronavirus outbreak?

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 54%

RON’S COMMENT: 14% of Democrats, 90% of Republicans and 41% of independents approve of the way Trump is handling the coronavirus outbreak in the Washington Post/ABC poll.

The following are ratings of the Trump administration on specific issues related to the outbreak:

% = Positive rating/Negative rating

  • Making coronavirus tests available: 45%/53%
  • Coordinating federal and state responses: 48%/51%
  • Handling of small business loans: 53%/43%
  • Providing help to people in need: 57%/41%

CBS poll:
How would you rate the job Donald Trump is doing handling the coronavirus outbreak?

Good: 45%
Bad: 55%

RON’S COMMENT: 13% of Democrats, 85% of Republicans and 43% of independents approve of the way Trump is handling the coronavirus outbreak in the CBS poll.

VOTE BY MAIL

Among voters nationwide

Do you support or oppose states making it easier for people to cast an absentee ballot or vote by mail instead of going to a polling place to vote?

Support: 63%
Oppose: 33%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows what other polls have been finding: a clear majority of voters nationwide favor voting by mail. 83% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 67% of independents agree.

PERSONAL WORRY ABOUT VIRUS

Among adults nationwide

How do you feel about the possibility that you or someone in your immediate family might catch the coronavirus?

Worried: 63%
Not worried: 35%

RON’S COMMENT: 79% of Democrats, 45% of Republicans and 63% of independents are worried.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

In 1932 when FDR was elected president, New York had the largest state population. Where did California rank? Which state ranked last in population?

(See answer below)

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, PERSONAL WORRY ABOUT VIRUS, VOTE BY MAIL, TRUMP
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CBS/YouGov, May 29-June 1
HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS: Washington Post/ABC, May 25-28
TRUMP HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS: CBS/YouGov, May 29-June 1
MISSOURI: We Ask America, May 26-27
FLOYD PROTESTS: Morning Consult, May 31-June 1

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TRIVIA ANSWER

In 1932, California ranked sixth in state population with 5.9 million people. At that time, New York had 13 million people and, in second place, was Pennsylvania with 9.8 million.
Nevada ranked last with 96,000 people.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.