Among general election voters
Biden over Trump: +12 (53-41)
Average of last four polls: Biden +9.3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues with a clear lead. Excerpts from the Monmouth poll report:
- “A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.”
- “Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
- “Overall, 21% of all registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either party’s nominee. Trump did well with this ‘double negative’ group in 2016. The National Election Pool exit poll showed him ultimately winning their vote after Clinton held a small edge throughout the campaign. But he is getting swamped among these voters this time around. Biden leads by 55% to 21% among this group.”
IN THE STATES
Maine: Biden +11
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 3 points in Maine’s statewide vote. However, Maine is one of two states (along with Nebraska) that allocates some of its electoral votes by Congressional district––and Trump won one of Maine’s two districts last time, giving him one electoral vote to Clinton’s three.
Pennsylvania: Biden +5
Biden’s average lead in Pennsylvania is 6.5 points based on the last four polls.
Though Biden’s average lead in Florida based on the three previous polls was 6.7 points, this survey has the race tied––lowering Biden’s average lead from the four most recent polls to 5 points.
Texas: Trump +4
Polls have been showing Texas competitive; the average of the last three surveys has Trump ahead by 1.3 points.
Arizona: Trump +4
This poll has Trump leading Arizona by 4 points, a state he carried last time by about the same margin. However, the three previous polls, when averaged, give Biden a 6-point lead in the state. Let’s wait and see whether this new Gravis poll is an outlier or a trend.