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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Post-Debate Democratic Numbers – New Hampshire – Texas


Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 7


Up 1 from Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters, IBD/TIPP) to 49% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll had it at 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+2 since last Thursday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 32%/33% = 32.5
Elizabeth Warren: 21%/15% = 18
Bernie Sanders: 14%/19% = 16.5
Kamala Harris: 7%/9% = 8
Pete Buttigieg: 5%/6% = 5.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3% = 2.5
Cory Booker: 2%/3% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Since the last round of debates, Biden remains on top with Warren in second place, based on the average of these two polls. In the Quinnipiac poll, Warren went from 15% to 21% and Harris dropped from 12% to 7%. While Booker’s debate performance was praised, it did not translate into many additional votes.


Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This post-debate poll has Biden on top in New Hampshire with Sanders second and Warren third. Numbers have been bouncing around in this first-in-the-nation primary, but usually show Biden first with Sanders and Warren vying for second place.


Among Democratic primary voters in Texas

Joe Biden: 28%
Beto O’Rourke: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT:  Biden continues to lead in the home state of O’Rourke, who runs second. This poll is bad news for Castro––to be a national player he needs to be doing much better in his home state than a weak eighth place. While Castro’s debate performances were generally praised, they have not translated into votes.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, August 1-5; Morning Consult/Politico, August 1-4
NEW HAPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Boston Globe/Suffolk, August 1-4
TEXAS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY:  Emerson College, August 1-3

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.