PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
AVERAGES: NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE
(Based on the last ten polls; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)
(Economist) Biden +11 (54-43)
(USC) Biden +11 (54-43)
(WSJ/NBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(YouGov) Biden +10 (53-43)
(Fox News )Biden +8 (52-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (52-44)
(Emerson) Biden +5 (50-45)
(The Hill) Biden +4 (49-45)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +3 (49-46)
(Rasmussen) Biden +1 (48-47)
Average of last ten polls: Biden +7.1
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average national popular vote is 51.3% and Trump’s average national popular vote is 44.2%. That leaves 4.5% undecided or for third-party candidates…. If you assume there is a “hidden” Trump vote of an extra point or two, that would put him at or near his 2016 vote percentage of 46%, which is also right where his average job approval rating is today.
AVERAGES: IN THE STATES
(Based on the last three to five polls in each state, depending upon interviewing dates; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)
States Trump carried in 2016
State (Electoral Votes): Candidate Leading (High, Low Poll Margins)
- WISCONSIN (10): Biden +6.6 (High +10, Low +1)
- MICHIGAN( 16): Biden +4.8 (High +10, Low -2)
- PENNSYLVANIA (20): Biden +4.2 (High +7, Low -2)
- MAINE CD2 (1): Biden +3.7 (High +4, Low +3)
- FLORIDA (29): Biden +2 (High +6, Low -1)
- ARIZONA (11): Biden +1 (High +6, Low -4)
- OHIO (18): Biden +0.3 (High +5, Low -5)
- GEORGIA (16): Biden +0.4 (High +4, Low -2)
- NORTH CAROLINA (15): Trump +1.2 (High +4, Low -1)
- TEXAS (38): Trump +1.7 (High +4, Low Even)
- IOWA (6): Trump +3.3 (High +7, Low +1)
States Clinton carried in 2016
State (Electoral Votes): Candidate Leading (High, Low Poll Margins)
- MAINE CD1 (1): Biden +22.7 (High +32, Low +17)
- MAINE (2): Biden +11.3 (High +13, Low +10)
- NEW HAMPSHIRE (4): Biden +8.7 (High +10, Low +8)
- MINNESOTA (10): Biden +4.3 (High +5, Low +3)
- NEVADA (6): Biden +3.6 (High +6, Low +2)
RON’S COMMENT: Observations and assumptions:
- Biden leads the Triple Crown states, which is enough to give him a majority of the electoral votes (278) assuming Clinton’s 2016 states hold, as they appear to be. Biden also leads all the states that Clinton carried in 2016 that have been watched this time. The closest is Nevada (+3.6) and Minnesota next at +4.3.
- If Biden wins other places where he has an average polling lead––however tiny that polling lead may be––he could win as many as 358 electoral votes.
- If Biden wins the Triple Crown states plus Maine CD2 and Arizona, he’s at 290, giving him some cushion.
For Trump to win:
- Trump can afford to lose Michigan and Wisconsin if he holds Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina.
- If Trump loses Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin––but holds Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Maine CD2––he would then need to carry Minnesota to get 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win.
- Keep in mind that many of the key states that swung to Trump in 2016 did so in the last two to three days. The major difference, however, is that more early votes were cast this time, making a late surge potentially less decisive. Also, Biden’s leads tend to be bigger than Clinton’s in some key states.
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