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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Recession? – New Hampshire – Texas – Warren Ties Biden in New National Poll



Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 11


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (WaPo/ABC) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.

Note on CNN poll: You may wonder why the CNN poll showing Trump with a 39% job rating is not included in our polling average today? The answer is that it is included––but the number we’re using is 42%, not 39%. The 42% number is based on CNN’s sample of registered voters and the 39% number is based on their sample of all adults. CNN only reported the 39% number last night on their news shows. Lunchtime Politics uses results based on voters, not adults, when both are available. Voter samples are more relevant politically and provide a more accurate reading within an electoral context. Also worth noting: Among voters who are “extremely enthused” about the presidential election, CNN’s data shows Trump with a 44% job approval rating. Among voters “very enthused,” CNN has Trump’s rating at 46%. So far, these numbers also have not been reported.


Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +15 (55-40)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (52-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (51-44)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (50-43)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (47-43)

RON’S COMMENT: These new trial heat numbers from the Washington Post/ABC poll show all five Democrats beating Trump. They also find Biden with a wide 15-point advantage.


Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Cory Booker: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This new poll from The Economist has Biden and Warren tied for first place. Compared to their poll last week, Biden has remained the same, Warren went up 4 points and Sanders went up 2 points.


Among voters statewide

Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (53-48)
Andrew Yang (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (51-49)

RON’S COMMENT: These are curious numbers. First, Yang does better against Trump in New Hampshire than anybody but Biden, even though Yang runs 8thin the primary. Second, the only Democrat who loses to Trump in New Hampshire is Warren, who represents the neighboring state of Massachusetts. Third, keep in mind that New Hampshire is a swing state. Hilary Clinton beat Trump here by less than a point. If a presidential contest gets down to a really close count, New Hampshire with its 4 Electoral votes could crown the winner.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide:
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%
Cory Booker: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
John Delaney: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads Warren in New Hampshire by a small margin. Note that Gabbard is running close to Harris and above Booker.


Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Beto O’Rourke: 12%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Julian Castro: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Biden ahead in the Lone Star state. But this one puts Warren in second place and home-state entry O’Rourke tied for third place. Castro, former mayor of San Antonio, is still posting in the low single-digits. Warren beats Sanders among the most liberal Democrats 31-19. Biden beats Warren among moderate Democrats 33-13. Biden wins blacks with 40%. O’Rourke wins Hispanics with 22%. Biden beats Warren among women 26-17 and men 31-20…. Electability remains the feather in Biden’s cap: 50% of Texas Democrats think he has the best chance of beating Trump, compared to 10% for Warren and 10% for Sanders.


Among adults nationwide

As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely?

Recession is likely: 60%
Recession is unlikely: 35%

RON’S COMMENT: In political terms, this finding should be disconcerting to the Trump campaign. While 56% of Americans have positive feelings toward the current economy in this poll, the fact that 60% see a recession coming is a complication for the president’s re-election message. This survey also shows that Trump’s rating for handling the economy is down 5 points since early July.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Emerson College, Sept. 6-9
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, Sept. 4-9

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.