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18 Jul LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Saturday’s Special – New Electoral Vote Analysis – Economic vs. Health Concerns – Supreme Court Approval

Posted at 15:45h in Lunchtime Politics by

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, July 18

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%

Same as Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 36% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 41%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Thursday), which is 15 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

ELECTORAL VOTE COUNT

by Ron Faucheux / Lunchtime Politics

RON’S ANALYSIS: Our new electoral vote count shows Joe Biden at 319 and Donald Trump at 219. It takes 270 to win.

  • Since our last analysis, we’ve moved Florida from Trump to Biden. The last three polls give Biden an average lead of 7.7 points in the Sunshine State.
  • North Carolina and Ohio are worth watching. Our polling average, based on the last four surveys, has Biden leading North Carolina by 2 points. The last two polls in Ohio give Biden an average lead of 1.5 points. However, we continue to give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt until there is clear and consistent evidence that a state he won in 2016 would likely flip against him. That’s why we have not moved these two states to Biden at this point. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 by almost 4 points and Ohio by 8 points. Combined, these two states have a total of 33 electoral votes––a major haul.
  • It’s a sign of Trump’s problem that we’re now talking about Ohio and North Carolina, instead of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona––four states Trump won in 2016, but where Biden now leads. Nonetheless, these four states still need to be closely watched. Three of them flipped to Trump at the last minute in the 2016 election.
  • Stay tuned, this race is just gearing up. Both sides will face new dangers and opportunities. Polls can change.
  • In 2016, Trump won a total of 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 227.

BIGGEST CONCERN: ECONOMIC VS. HEALTH EFFECTS

Among voters nationwide

Which one are you most concerned about? 

Protecting Americans from health effects of COVID-19 outbreak: 64%
Protecting Americans from economic effects of COVID-19 outbreak: 34%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters put the health effects over the economic effects of the pandemic as their biggest concern…. There is a major partisan split: Trump’s supporters say they are more concerned with the economic effects, 68-32…. Biden’s supporters say they are more concerned with the health effects, 89-11.

HANDLING THE ECONOMY

Among voters nationwide

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

Trump: 45%
Biden: 50%

RON’S COMMENT: While Trump’s handling of the economy runs above his general election trial heat vote, Biden has now overtaken him on the issue in this Quinnipiac poll. A month ago in this poll, Trump led Biden on the economy 51-46…. It should be mentioned that Quinnipiac often shows Democrats doing better than other polls.

SUPREME COURT APPROVAL

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the United States Supreme Court is handling its job?

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 37%

RON’S COMMENT: Despite the recent round of Court decisions that have angered many conservatives, a majority of Republicans (53%) approve of the high court. That compares with 49% of Democrats and 57% of independents…. Also: 45% of Republicans think the Court is too liberal and 60% of Democrats think it’s too conservative.

SCHOOL REOPENING

Among voters nationwide

Regardless of the current restrictions in your state, do you think it will be safe or unsafe to send students to elementary, middle, and high schools in the fall?

Safe: 31%
Unsafe: 62%

RON’S COMMENT: The safety of reopening of schools show sharp partisan divisions––60% of Republicans believe reopening schools is safe, compared to 9% of Democrats and 32% of independents. 37% of adults with children under 18 believe reopening schools is safe.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
HANDLING THE ECONOMY, SUPREME COURT APPROVAL, SCHOOL REOPENING: Quinnipiac, July 9-13
BIGGEST CONCERN: The Economist/YouGov, July 12-14

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.