Among voters in each state
Sen. Tina Smith (DFL) over Jason Lewis (R): +3 (48-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Will the Senate race in Minnesota be a tighter battle than observers expected?…. Democrat Smith was appointed to the seat after Al Franken (D) resigned in 2018; she won the special election that year, 53-42. Republican Lewis is a former one-term congressman from Minnesota’s 2nd CD. He was defeated for re-election in 2018 by Democrat Angie Craig…. There are two other candidates, both running on pro-cannabis platforms….Handicappers so far haven’t seen this as much of a contest; they rate the race solid or likely Democratic.
Roger Marshall (R) over Barbara Bollier (D): +2 (46-44)
RON’S COMMENT: This open seat is now held by Sen. Pat Roberts (R), who is retiring…. Republican Marshall is a congressman from the state’s 1st district. Democrat Bollier is a physician and state senator. Marshall recently defeated former Kansas Sec. of State Kris Kobach in the primary by a 40-26 margin…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
(CNBC) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +5 (48-43)
(Emerson) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +2 (44-42)
COMMENT: Democrat Cunningham had been posting substantial 9 to 12 point leads in July. These two new polls have him ahead by narrower margins, averaging 3.5 points. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
(CNBC) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +6 (49-43)
(Emerson) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +11 (52-41)
RON’S COMMENT: The last four polls, including these two, show Kelly with an average lead of 7.3 points. Worth noting: The CNBC poll showed Kelly’s lead slipping to only 2 points two weeks ago, but now has him back up by 6. Handicappers rate the contest lean Democratic.
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +3 (48-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Peters still leads, although his advantage in this poll is smaller than the two previous polls that had him 10 points ahead. Handicappers rate the contest lean Democratic.