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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Sessions in Trouble – Arizona Senate – GOP Leads Dems

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 11


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without those extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters statewide

Trump over Biden: +2 (51-49)
Trump over Sanders: +6 (53-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads both Biden and Sanders in Florida, though Biden runs it closer. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans have carried Florida three times and Democrats have carried it three times.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

(Reuters) Biden over Sanders: +21 (54-33)
(The Economist) Biden over Sanders: +15 (53-38)

RON’S COMMENT: Ten days ago, Sanders had a 12-point lead over Biden among Democratic primary voters nationwide. Now, Biden has margins ranging from 15% to 21%.


Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Biden over Sanders: +36 (61-25)

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Florida is a lost cause for Sanders. Biden maintains a wide lead in the state. The primary is March 17 for 219 delegates.


Among Republican primary voters statewide

Republican primary
Tommy Tuberville over Jeff Sessions: +12 (52-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Sessions is now the underdog in his Senate comeback bid. Former Auburn coach Tuberville posts a solid runoff lead over the former senator and Trump AG. This poll also finds that 45% of Republican primary voters believe President Trump opposes Sessions’ election, while 16% disagree. Trump has, since this poll was taken, endorsed Tuberville…. Tuberville led Sessions in the first primary by almost 2 points…. The runoff is March 31…. The GOP winner will face Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November.


Among voters statewide

Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +7 (49-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Kelly, who has raised more than $20 million, has led every poll since August. McSally has raised $12 million…. The survey finds that 47% of Arizona voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 50% disapprove. And,46% approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus situation, while 54% disapprove.


Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the [Republicans in Congress/Democrats in Congress] are handling their job?

% = Approve/Disapprove
Republicans in Congress: 40%/56%
Democrats in Congress: 35%/62%

RON’S COMMENT: This is interesting––Republicans in Congress now rate better than Democrats in Congress by 5 points (40% vs. 35%). Over the past four months, approval of Republicans went up 6 points and approval of Democrats went down 3 points. Did impeachment hurt Democrats? Looks like it.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Reuters/Ipsos, March. 6-9; The Economist/YouGov, March 8-10
FLORIDA: FAU, March. 5-7
ALABAMA: Cygnal, March 6-8
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, March 3-4

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020  Ronald A. Faucheux
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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.