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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Special Sunday Edition – Collins Lagging in Maine – Coronavirus Handling – Generic Ballot – Latest on Key States

Your Daily Polling Update Sunday, July 26

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%

Same as Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters, Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 42%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from Thursday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

The next edition of Lunchtime Politics will be Thursday. We will return to our regular Tuesday/Thursday publication schedule the next week.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters in each state

(GravisMICHIGAN: Biden +9
(Fox News) MICHIGAN: Biden +9
(CNNMICHIGAN: Biden +12

(Fox NewsPENNSYLVANIA: Biden +11
(GravisPENNSYLVANIA: Biden +3

(QuinnipiacFLORIDA: Biden +13
(CNNFLORIDA: Biden +5

(Fox News) MINNESOTA: Biden +13

(GravisWISCONSIN: Biden +8

(CNN): ARIZONA: Biden +4

RON’S COMMENT: All of these states, except for Minnesota, were carried by Trump in 2016. Hillary Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5 points. Biden’s advantage in these states spell trouble for the incumbent. If Biden wins all of them, he wins the White House…. Quinnipiac’s 13-point margin for Biden in Florida is the best the former VP has done in that state all year, and is much wider than the CNN poll (+5). Of course, Quinnipiac’s numbers often show Democrats doing better than other polls…. The two polls from Pennsylvania also show varying results…. Michigan seems to be getting away from Trump, these three polls give Biden an average lead of 10 points.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +5 (47-42)

COMMENT: This poll shows Democrat Gideon leading GOP incumbent Collins in this highly watched battle. Collins, who built a reputation as a moderate Republican who works across party lines, is having trouble regaining her balance this year. Senate votes on impeachment and Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation have unsettled her usual coalition. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +7 (50-43)

COMMENT: Democrat Kelly maintains his lead. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic.

MICHIGAN
(Gravis) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +10 (49-39)
(Fox News) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +10 (48-38)

COMMENT: The last four polls give Democratic incumbent Peters an 8.3-point average lead. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.

HANDLING OF THE CORONAVIRUS

Among voters nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove
Donald Trump: 40%/56%
Federal government: 31%/66%
Your state government: 43%/54%
Your local government: 49%/46%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters across the nation hold negative views of the way the federal government, President Trump and their state governments have handled the coronavirus. Only local government is net positive, albeit by a small margin…. Here are some interesting internal numbers, especially as they relate to Trump and the federal government:

  • 5% of Biden’s voters and 88% of Trump’s voters approve of Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
  • 94% of Biden’s voters and 10% of Trump’s voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
  • 7% of Biden’s voters and 60% of Trump’s voters approve of the federal government’s handling of the pandemic.
  • 90% of Biden’s voters and 37% of Trump’s voters disapprove of the federal government’s handling of the pandemic.

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE

Among voters nationwide

If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live? 

The Democratic candidate: 47%
The Republican candidate: 40%
Other/Not sure: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: Generic Democrats in congressional races lead Republicans by a 7-point margin in this Economist poll. Internal numbers:

  • Women break 50-38 for Democratic congressional candidates. Men are tied.
  • Independents break for Republican congressional candidates 35-32.
  • Voters 18-29 vote Democratic 50-32, but voters over 65 vote Republican 53-40.
  • Whites break for Republicans 49-40, but Blacks vote Democratic 75-8 and Hispanics vote Democratic 55-27.
  • In this same poll, Biden leads Trump 48-41 in the presidential race, just one point off of the generic congressional vote. Worth noting: Biden does better among independents (37%) than do his party’s congressional candidates (32%).

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Gravis, July 22-24; Fox News, July 18-20
MINNESOTA: Fox News, July 18-20
MICHIGAN: Gravis, July 22-24; Fox News, July 18-20; CNN, July 18-24
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, July 16-20; CNN, July 18-24
ARIZONA: CNN, July 18-24
HANDLING OF THE CORONAVIRUS, GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE: The Economist/YouGov, July 19-21

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.