Lunchtime Politics on Twitter

LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Supreme Court Vacancy, Roe vs. Wade – Florida, Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Arizona – New Senate Polling

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 24

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Politico, CNBC, Quinnipiac) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 47%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(Quinnipiac) Biden +10 (52-42)
(Rasmussen) Biden +1 (48-47)
Today’s average: Biden +5.5
Average of last five polls: Biden +6.6

RON’S COMMENT: We have a really big spread today, showing Biden with leads ranging from 1 to 10 points. Looking at recent polls, Rasmussen is the outlier––although Quinnipiac is a bit better for Biden than most other polls.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
FLORIDA (Reuters): Even
ARIZONA (Reuters): Biden +1
MICHIGAN ( U. of Wis): Biden +6
PENNSYLVANIA (U. of Wis): Biden +4
WISCONSIN (U. of Wis): Biden +4
IOWA (NYT): Biden +3
TEXAS (NYT): Trump +3
GEORGIA (NYT): Even
GEORGIA (Monmouth): Trump +2

States Clinton carried in 2016
VIRGINIA (CNU): Biden +5

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is leading Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin––Trump’s Triple Crown from 2016…. The Iowa poll is good news for Biden. Trump carried the state in 2016 by 9 points…. Florida is even…. Arizona remains tight with Biden edging Trump…. Trump leads Texas, but it remains fairly close…. This poll shows Virginia tighter than other recent polling.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

GEORGIA Special Election; Open Primary (NYT)
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 23%
Doug Collins (R): 19%
Raphael Warnock (D): 19%
Matt Lieberman (D): 7%
Ed Tarver (D): 4%

RON’S COMMENT: In recent days, the top three have remained fairly close, which means almost anything can happen…. The open primary is Nov. 3 and a runoff, if needed, will be between the top two finishers…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.

GEORGIA Regular Election (NYT)
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +3 (41-38)

COMMENT: Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.

TEXAS (NYT)
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +6 (43-37)

COMMENT: Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.

IOWA (NYT)
Theresa Greenfield (D) over Sen. Joni Ernst (R): +2 (42-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Handicappers rate the contest tossup.

SUPREME COURT VACANCY

Among voters nationwide

Importance: As you may know, the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy on the Supreme Court. How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court justice to you personally? 

Very/Somewhat Important
Democrats: 83%
Republicans: 82%
Independents: 63%

RON’S COMMENT: Not much difference between partisans on the importance of the next Supreme Court choice to them personally.

Wait for new president? Do you think Donald Trump should nominate someone to fill the vacancy or should the seat remain vacant until a new president takes office in January 2021? 

Trump should nominate: 43%
Let next president decide: 49%

Lame-duck session: If Joe Biden wins the presidential election, would it be legitimate or not legitimate for Republicans to confirm a Supreme Court nominee in a “lame-duck” session after the election but before the new Congress and Biden take office? 

Legitimate to confirm nominee in lame-duck session: 31%
Not legitimate to confirm nominee in lame-duck session: 41%
Not sure: 29%

ROE VS. WADE DECISION

Among voters nationwide

As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court Case Roe v. Wade established a woman’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 

Yes, would like to see Roe v. Wade overturned: 29%
No, would not like to see Roe v. Wade overturned: 55%
Not sure: 21%

RON’S COMMENT: 6% of Biden’s supporters and 58% of Trump’s supporters want to overturn Roe vs. Wade…. 83% of Biden’s supporters and 25% of Trump’s supporters do NOT want to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which means maintaining abortion rights in all 50 states…. 25% of women want to overturn Roe, and 52% don’t.

PRESIDENTIAL MESSAGE TESTING

Among voters nationwide

Now, I’m going to read you some statements you could hear from candidates running for president. After I read each statement, please tell me how well it describes what you think … very well, somewhat well, not too well, not well at all….

Bidenesque message: This is our chance to put the darkness and division of the past few years behind us. We need to get control over the virus. We need to focus on rewarding work, improving health care, addressing climate change, and protecting Social Security and Medicare. It’s time to have a president who brings out the best in us:

  • 50% of voters say this message describes their beliefs “very well”
  • 27% of voters say this message describes their beliefs “somewhat well”

Trumpesque message: We can rebuild the greatest, most prosperous economy in history. Going forward, it takes more than a nice guy to meet the challenges we face. We stand against career politicians who let other countries take advantage of America on trade, borders, foreign policy and national defense. Instead, we put America first. We will emerge from today’s challenges stronger than ever: 39%

  • 39% of voters say this message describes their beliefs “very well”
  • 24% of voters say this message describes their beliefs “somewhat well”

RON’S COMMENT: This shows that a Bidenesque message does better than a Trumpesque message. But caution: These types of multi-part message statements, when used in polling questions, are very easy to bias.

SUBSCRIBE

Click here to forward this message to a friend or client.
You can sign up here to receive Lunchtime Politics in your inbox everyday. Follow LunchtimePolitics on Twitter.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL, STATE POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING DONE WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
SUPREME COURT VACANCY, ROE VS. WADE DECISION: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 20-22
PRESIDENTIAL MESSAGE TESTING: WSJ/NBC, Sept. 13-16

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

Subscribe Now




Contact Us
About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.