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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump and War – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, Texas

 


Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, July 22

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Politico-Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

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IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Kamala Harris: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Since mid-June, Biden is down 6 points, Warren is up 5 points, Sanders is down 3 points, Harris is up 11 points and Buttigieg is down 4 points.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Since mid-June, Biden is down 6 points, Warren is up 1, Harris is up 5 and Buttigieg is down 3. Sanders is the same.

SOUTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 39%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Since mid-June, Biden is down 6 points, Sanders is down 1, Warren is up 4, Harris is up 5 and Buttigieg is down 1.

CALIFORNIA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 24%
Kamala Harris: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Harris are battling it out for first place in Harris’ home state in this CBS/YouGov poll. Warren is fairly close behind them. The previous poll, conducted by Quinnipiac just a few days earlier, had Biden at 21% and Harris at 23%. Though Harris has been moving up, she still needs to run first by a wide margin in her home state to gain a big enough delegate advantage to go all the way.

TEXAS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 27%
Beto O’Rourke: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Julian Castro: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: To be major national contenders, both O’Rourke and Castro need to do much better in their home state of Texas than what they’re showing in this poll. Biden maintains a lead in this delegate-rich state. Warren is also in the hunt.

TRUMP AND WAR

Among voters nationwide

How likely do you think it is that Donald Trump will get us into a war? 

Very likely: 21%
Fairly likely: 25%
Fairly unlikely: 26%
Very unlikely: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: 46% of voters say it’s very or fairly likely Trump will get the U.S. into war. 71% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 21% of Republicans say so.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, SOUTH CAROLINA, CALIFORNIA, TEXAS: CBS News/YouGov, July 9-18
TRUMP AND WAR: The Economist/YouGov, July 14-16

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@aol.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


 

Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.