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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Truthfulness, Info Sources – Whitmer Kidnapping Threat

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 19

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(IBD/TIPP) Biden +6 (50-44-2-1)
Average of last three 4-way polls: Biden +8.7

RON’S COMMENT: Surprisingly few polls today.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
WISCONSIN (CBS): Biden +5
ARIZONA (CBS): Biden +3
MISSOURI (Scout): Trump +6

RON’S COMMENT: Internal numbers from key states of Wisconsin and Arizona––

Wisconsin poll: 

  • 24% of Wisconsin voters say they have already voted, and that includes 39% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans.
  • Trump wins on the economy 47-46 and Biden wins on the coronavirus 53-34.
  • 54% say they like Biden personally and 32% say they like Trump personally.
  • 47% say Biden is most concerned about the middle class, 35% say the wealthy and elite and 18% say the poor.
  • 35% say Trump is most concerned about the middle class, 60% say the wealthy and elite and 5% say the poor.

Arizona poll: 

  • 26% of all Arizona voters say they‘ve already voted, and that includes 39% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans.
  • Trump wins on the economy 47-44 and Biden wins on the coronavirus 50-39.
  • 50% say they like Biden personally and 34% say they like Trump personally.
  • 43% say Biden is most concerned about the middle class, 42% say the wealthy and elite and 15% say the poor.
  • 34% say Trump is most concerned about the middle class, 58% say the wealthy and elite and 8% say the poor.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

ARIZONA (CBS)
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +11 (52-41)

RON’S COMMENT: Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.

WHITMER KIDNAPPING THREAT

Among voters nationwide

[The] Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested 6 people in Michigan, charging them with conspiring to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Seven others tied to a related paramilitary group were also arrested and charged with state terrorism threats against law enforcement officers. Do you believe that these people arrested by the FBI… 

Presented a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety: 64%
Did not present a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety: 11%
Not sure: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: 78% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 51% of Republicans say the kidnap threat presented a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety.

TRUTHFULNESS: BY INFORMATION SOURCE

Among adults nationwide

How confident are you that the content or information you receive from each of the following sources is true…?

Something I saw with my own eyes: 92%
Government records (birth/death/marriage; property, licenses, etc.): 84%
My memory: 80%
Live audio/video as it happens: 76%
Statements from researchers/academics: 76%
Eyewitness statements: 57%
My religious leaders: 56%
Communications or advertising from major companies: 40%
Statements from government officials: 36%

 

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: IBD/TIPP, Oct. 14-18
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
TRUTHFULNESS: BY INFORMATION SOURCE: Ipsos, Aug. 25-26
WHITMER: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 11-13

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.