Lunchtime Politics on Twitter

LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tuesday Trivia – New Prez, Senate Polls – Oklahoma, New York, New Jersey House Races

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 6

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (CNN) to 46% (IBD/TIPP). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from  yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(CNN) Biden +16 (57-41)
(JTN/RMG) Biden +8 (51-43)
Today’s average: Biden +12
Average of last five polls: Biden +9.6

RON’S COMMENT: The CNN poll, which was taken after the debate and mostly after the president’s coronavirus diagnosis, shows an eye-popping lead for Biden among likely voters, twice what the other survey indicates. When a registered voter sample is used, Biden’s lead slips slightly to 15 points. The previous CNN poll from about a month ago pegged Biden’s lead at 8 points…. From the CNN poll report:

  • 8% of Biden supporters and 10% of Trump supporters say they may still change their minds.
  • Likely voters prefer Biden over Trump on a number of issues, including the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), healthcare (59% to 39%), racial inequality (62% to 36%), Supreme Court nominations (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). The two are about even on the economy (50% say Biden, 48% Trump).
  • Trump’s supporters are more likely to say crime and safety (51% extremely important among Trump supporters vs. 33% among Biden supporters) and the economy (48% among Trump supporters, 36% among Biden supporters) are top concerns in how they vote.
  • Among Biden’s supporters, 66% say the coronavirus is extremely important to their vote vs. 21% among Trump backers; 63% say race relations are important vs. 16% of Trump voters; 58% consider health care extremely important vs. 25% of Trump supporters; and 51% say climate change is extremely important compared with just 5% of Trump supporters.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
FLORIDA (USA Today): Even
FLORIDA (UNF): Biden +6
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Biden +9
PENNSYLVANIA (Reuters): Biden +5
WISCONSIN (Reuters): Biden +6
OHIO (Trafalgar-R): Trump +4
ARIZONA (NYT): Biden +8
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): Biden +4
ALABAMA (Auburn U.): Trump +20

RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to hold leads in MichiganPennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Triple Crown of Trump’s victory in 2016…. Two polls in Florida––one has it even and one has Biden ahead…. Biden’s leads in Arizona and North Carolina are especially good news for his campaign. The Trafalgar (R) poll in Ohio is good for Trump.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D)
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +6 (48-42)

COMMENT: This poll was conducted right after the story broke about Cunningham’s sexting episode, which 58% of voters said they had heard about. Incumbent Tillis has tested positive for the virus. Handicappers rate the race tossup or tilt Democrat.

ALABAMA (Auburn U.)
Tommy Tuberville (D) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +12 (54-42)

COMMENT: Handicappers rate this Senate race lean or likely Republican.

ARIZONA (NYT)
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +11 (50-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Kelly has widened his lead. The three previous polls had him up by 6 points, on average. Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.

DELAWARE (U. of Delaware)
Sen. Chris Coons(D) over Lauren Witzke(R): +30 (57-27)

COMMENT: This is a good year for Democrats in Delaware. Incumbent Coons posts a big re-election lead. Handicappers rate the race safe Democratic.

U.S. HOUSE RACES

Among voters in each district

  • New Jersey 2 (Monmouth): Amy Kennedy (D) over U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R): +6 (50-44)
  • Oklahoma 5 (CHS): Stephanie Bice (R) over U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn (D): +4 (49-45)
  • New York 24 (NYT): Dana Balter (D) over U.S. Rep. John Katko (R): +2 (42-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Three House incumbents in tough races––In New Jersey 2, Republican Van Drew is the incumbent and he’s running behind Democrat Kennedy, who is a mental health advocate and wife of former Rep. Patrick Kennedy…. In Oklahoma 5, Democrat Horn is the incumbent, and she’s running behind Republican Bice, a state senator…. In New York 24, Republican Katko is the incumbent, and he’s running slightly behind Democrat Balter.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

When was the first vice-presidential debate––and who were the two candidates?

(See answer below)

SUBSCRIBE

Click here to forward this message to a friend or client.
You can sign up here to receive Lunchtime Politics in your inbox everyday. Follow LunchtimePolitics on Twitter.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TRIVIA ANSWER

1976. Walter Mondale (D) and Bob Dole (R) were the first vice-presidential candidates to debate.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

Subscribe Now




Contact Us
About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.