TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Politico, Quinnipiac, Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/Politico = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/32% = 29.5
Elizabeth Warren: 30%/21% = 25.5
Bernie Sanders: 11%/19% = 15
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/5% = 6.5
Kamala Harris: 4%/6% = 5
Andrew Yang: 2%/3% = 2.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3% = 2.5
Cory Booker: 2%/3% = 2.5
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/1% = 1.5
Tom Steyer: 2%/1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Conflicting Polls Alert! The Politico/Morning Consult poll continues to show Biden clearly on top, while the Quinnipiac poll shows Warren with the lead. There is also a big 8-point difference on Sanders’ strength…. Since the June debates in the Politico poll, Biden has dropped 6 points, Warren has jumped up 8 points and Sanders has stayed the same. In their subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 31%, then Warren 19% and Sanders 14%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic voters statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 25%
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire poll shows a three-way race at the top with Warren edging Biden. Among Democratic primary voters in this crucial state, Biden’s personal rating is 79% favorable/18% unfavorable; Sanders is 74% favorable/22% unfavorable; and Warren is 81% favorable/14% unfavorable.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among Republican voters statewide

Donald Trump: 71%
Bill Weld: 14%
Joe Walsh: 5%
Mark Sanford: 1%

RON COMMENTS: Trump posts a gigantic lead in the New Hampshire GOP primary. However, if the 29% who aren’t voting for him would coalesce around one candidate, they could possibly make a fairly decent showing….Romney in New Hampshire: Among GOP primary voters in the state, Mitt Romney’s personal rating now leans decidedly negative, at 29% favorable/46% unfavorable. More evidence that Republican elected officials attack Trump at their own peril. In pre-Trump days, Romney did pretty well in New Hampshire. He won the 2012 primary with 39% of the vote.

UK PARTY POLITICS

Among voters in Great Britain

Political Party Preference: 
% = Average of last two polls
Conservative:33%
Labour: 28.5%
Lib Dems: 17.5%
Brexit: 12%
Green: 3.5%
SNP: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is in first place. The Tories are up 3 points from a month ago, Labour is up 5 points, Liberal Democrats are down 2 points and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is down 1.5 points.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Mitt Romney won the 2012 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. Who ran second and third?

(see answer below)

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Ron Paul ran second (23%) and Jon Huntsman ran third (17%).