PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE

(Economist) Biden over Trump: +10 (50-40)
(The Hill) Biden over Trump: +6 (45-39)
Average of last five polls: Biden +7.8

RON’S COMMENT: The Economist poll, which is most recent, shows Biden’s lead over the last week holding steady at 10 points.The Hill poll shows Biden’s lead has expanded from 4 to 6 points in less than a week. In the Economist poll:

• Republicans break 91% for Trump, 4% for Biden and 1% other.
• Democrats break 95% for Biden, 3% for Trump and 1% other.
• Independents break 42% for Trump, 37% for Biden and 9% other.
• Biden is winning women by 18 points and men by 1 point.
• Trump wins Whites 49-43. Biden wins Blacks 87-4 and Hispanics 63-24.

ENTHUSIASM FOR VOTING

Among voters nationwide

How do you feel about voting in the election in November? Would you say you are …?

% = Very enthusiastic
All likely voters: 65%
Men: 67%
Women: 63%
18-29 years old: 42%
65+ years old: 78%
Democrats: 66%
Republicans: 74%
Independents: 54%
Whites: 66%
Blacks: 63%
Hispanics: 63%

RON’S COMMENT: These results are a timely warning for Biden’s campaign. Democrats have an overall 8-point enthusiasm deficit when measured against Republicans (66% vs. 74%). Enthusiasm is low among 18-29-year-old voters, a constituency Democrats must win by a big margin. The oldest voters are almost two-to-one more likely than the youngest voters to have a high level of enthusiasm (78% vs. 42%). Whites and men, who tend to vote Republican, have a bit more enthusiasm than do women and Blacks or Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic…. Keep in mind: This poll was taken after Kamala Harris was picked to be VP but before the Democratic “convention”…. It will be interesting to see if, and how much, the “convention” revs up Democratic enthusiasm for voting.

HARRIS FAVORABILITY

Among voters nationwide

Kamala Harris National Rating
Favorable: 41%
Unfavorable: 38%
Don’t know: 21%

RON’S COMMENT: Harris is slightly net positive nationwide. Her favorable rating among women is higher than men (48% vs. 33%). She is net negative among independents (36% favorable/37% unfavorable) and Whites (40% favorable/44% unfavorable). She’s net favorable among people of color (43%/ favorable/28% unfavorable)––but notice that her favorable rating among this important group is well under 50%…. Let’s see how Harris does after the acceptance speech, that’s her opportunity to strengthen her footing.

HARRIS IN CALIFORNIA

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden has selected Kamala Harris as his Vice Presidential running mate. Was Kamala Harris the right choice? Or should Biden have chosen somebody else?

% = Among independents 
Harris right choice: 37%
Should have been somebody else: 44%
Not sure: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: In her home state of California, Harris does not do well among independent voters. Only 37% say she was the right choice for VP…. Among all California voters––which includes Democrats, Republicans and independents––53% say she was the right choice…. Of course, it doesn’t much matter in terms of California’s electoral votes because the Biden-Harris ticket will easily carry the state by a wide margin, but this poll does provide a reading on Harris among the voters who know her best.

KANSAS POLITICS

Among voters statewide

% = Approve/Disapprove
Pres. Donald Trump (R): 50%/48%
Gov. Laura Kelly (D): 64%/29%
Sen. Jerry Moran (R): 42%/33%
Sen. Pat Roberts (R): 42%/38%

Presidential Election in Kansas
Trump over Biden: +7 (48-41-5)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s job rating is better in Kansas than it is nationally, which is no surprise. He carried the state in 2016 by 21 points…. Interestingly, the most popular official in this red state is the Democratic governor, Laura Kelly. She was elected in 2018 by a 48-43 margin. As governor, Kelly has reorganized state agencies, opposed a tough anti-abortion measure pushed by the GOP legislature and has criticized the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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