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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voter Mood – Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina – San Diego Mayor

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 9


Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: These polls are capturing Trump’s convention bounce, showing his job rating rising to 46%…. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Politico) to 49% (Emerson, Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-2 from yesterday)….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.


Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(Grinnell/Selzer) Biden +8 (49-41-3)
(USA Today) Biden +7 (50-43)
Average of last four polls: Biden +6.3

RON’S COMMENT: Despite various signs of slippage, Biden maintains a clear national lead in these two new polls…. From the Grinnell/Selzer poll:

  • Mind made up: 82% of voters say their mind is made up and 11% say they could be persuaded. The share of voters who could be persuaded has dropped from 32% in March to 11% now. Also: 10% of Biden supporters say they could be persuaded, compared to 11% of Trump supporters.
  • Personal ratings: Biden’s rating is net negative, 43% favorable/48% unfavorable––an indication that his image upgrade from the “convention” may have dissipated. Despite a negative-leaning rating, Biden continues to do better than his opponent: Trump’s rating is 42% favorable/52% unfavorable.
  • Biden’s rating among men is as bad as Trump’s rating among women: Biden is 38% favorable/55% unfavorable among male voters and Trump is 37% favorable/55% unfavorable among female voters.
  • Whites: Biden’s rating among Whites is 41% favorable/53% unfavorable. Trump is 49% favorable/46% unfavorable.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
GEORGIA: Trump +7


  • Biden continues to lead Pennsylvania, but his margin is too close for comfort. The three previous polls gave him an average margin of 4.7 points in his birth state.
  • The average of the four most recent polls from North Carolina has Trump ahead by a slim eight-tenths of a point. This continues to be a tight battleground state that Trump won in 2016 by nearly 4 points.
  • While Democrats are still focused on carrying Georgia, this poll shows the state may be getting away from them. Two of the previous three polls had Biden slightly ahead. This poll shows that Trump got through the “convention” period without losing or gaining in the Peach State, while Biden lost 3 points––a disturbing result for Democrats.
  • Do these two polls from southern states mean that Trump is bouncing back in the battleground South? Too early to tell, but it’s a trend worth watching.


Among voters nationwide

Barbara Bry over Todd Gloria: +3 (37-34)

RON’S COMMENT: In this nonpartisan runoff, Bry is winning Democrats by a point, Republicans by 10 points and independents by 2 points. Bry is a city council member and Gloria is a state assemblyman; both consider themselves Democrats. The primary was March 3 and it took weeks for the final vote tally to determine the runoff contenders. Gloria received 42% and Bry received 23% in the primary…. Incumbent San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is leaving the job after eight years. His job rating is 57% approve/25% disapprove.


Among voters nationwide

For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or strongly disagree:

“The political establishment in the United States does not have my best interests in mind.” 

Agree: 69%
Disagree: 24%

RON’S COMMENT: 62% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 78% of independents agree that the establishment does not have their best interests in mind. 

“Too many of the benefits provided by the government go to the wrong people.”

Agree: 60%
Disagree: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: 72% of Republicans, 47% of Democrats and 65% of independents agree government benefits go to the wrong people.

“I’m worried that the best days of America are behind us.”

Agree: 39%
Disagree: 56%

RON’S COMMENT: 34% of Republicans, 41% of Democrats and 46% of independents agree that the best days of America are behind us.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIOINAL PRESIDENTIAL: Grennell/Selzer, Aug. 26–30; USA Today/Suffolk, Aug. 28-31
NORTH CAROLINA: East Carolina Univ., Aug. 29-30
GEORGIA: WSB-TV/Landmark, Aug. 29-31
PENNSYLVANIA: Monmouth, Aug. 28-31
MAYOR OF SAN DIEGO: KGTV-TV/Union-Tribune, Aug. 28-31
AMERICA’S MOOD: Grennell/Selzer, Aug. 26–30

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.