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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voting Early – Trump’s Health, Taxes – Ohio, Iowa Close – Georgia, Iowa and Michigan Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 12


Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.


Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(Wapo/ABC) Biden +12 (54-42-2-1)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +9 (52-43-2-1)
Today’s average: Biden +10.5
Average of last seven polls: Biden +9.8

RON’S COMMENT: The IBD poll gives Biden a 9-point lead with third-party candidates included and an 11-point lead without third-party candidates…. The Washington Post/ABC poll finds that––

  • 41% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 51% say they will vote early and 6% say they’ve already voted. That roughly translates to about 9 million votes already cast.
  • The biggest voting issue is the economy (29%) followed by the coronavirus (15%), racial equality (14%) and healthcare (13%).
  • Voters trust Trump on the economy over Biden 48-47.
  • Voters trust Biden on the coronavirus over Trump 55-38.
  • 65% are worried that someone in their family might catch the coronavirus.
  • 38% trust the Trust administration to provide complete and accurate information on the president’s health condition and 60% do not.
  • 35% think Trump paid his fair share in federal income taxes and 56% do not.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
MICHIGAN (CBS): Biden +6
MICHIGAN (Baldwin-Wallace U.): Biden +7
PENNSYLVANIA (Baldwin-Wallace U.): Biden +5
WISCONSIN: (Baldwin-Wallace U.): Biden +7
OHIO (Baldwin-Wallace U.): Trump +2
IOWA (CBS):  Even
MONTANA (PPP-D): Trump +6
GEORGIA (PPP-D): Biden +1
GEORGIA (WSB-TV): Trump +2

States Clinton carried in 2016
NEVADA (CBS): Biden +6

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds 5- to 7-point leads in the Triple Crown states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that can make him president––still too close for comfort?…. Neither Ohio nor Iowa has clearly broken for either candidate, both are close…. Though Georgia still remains a reach for Democrats, the race remains competitive.


Among voters in each state

Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +3 (47-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Peters still leads, although his advantage is much smaller in this poll. His average lead based on the last four polls is 7 points…. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.

Sen. Steve Daines (R) and Steve Bullock (D): even (48-48)

COMMENT: The last poll we reported, from Emerson College, gave Daines a 9-point lead. This one from a Democratic-affiliated pollster has the race even. Handicappers rate this Senate race tossup or lean Republican.

Theresa Greenfield (D) over Sen. Joni Ernst (R): +4 (47-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Greenfield’s average lead based on the last four polls is 6 points. This race isn’t over––the presidential contest could have an impact here. Nonetheless, incumbent Ernst is struggling and time is running out…. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.

GEORGIA Special Election Open Primary 

Raphael Warnock (D): 36%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 26%
Doug Collins (R): 23%
Matt Lieberman (D): 3%

(PPP-D poll)
Raphael Warnock (D): 41%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 24%
Doug Collins (R): 22%
Matt Lieberman (D): 3%

RON’S COMMENT: Warnock has moved up to a clear first place with Loeffler and Collins battling for second place and a runoff berth…. Lieberman no longer appears to be a factor…. Most local observers believe either Republican would likely defeat Democrat Warnock in a runoff.

GEORGIA Regular Election
(WSB-TV) Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +1 (47-46)
(PPP-D) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (44-43)

COMMENT: What’s happening here? The recent Atlanta Journal Constitution poll had Purdue ahead by 8 points, now these two more recent surveys have the race virtually even…. Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.

ARIZONA (Trafalgar-R)
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT: This is a Trafalgar poll, which often shows Republicans doing better than other polls. The previous four polls had Democrat Kelly with an average lead of 9.5 points…. Handicappers rate the contest tilt or lean Democratic.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Washington Post/ABC, Oct. 6-9
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.