Among voters in each state
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) over Amy McGrath (D): +17 (53-36)
RON’S COMMENT: The Senate Majority Leader holds a substantial lead over his Democratic challenger. McConnell is winning 84% of Republicans and beats McGrath 45-33 among independents. McGrath polls 79% of Democrats. Handicappers rate the race likely or safe Republican.
Sen. Steve Daines (R) over Steve Bullock (D): +6 (50-44)
RON’S COMMENT: The last three polls put GOP incumbent Daines ahead of Democrat Bullock, the state’s governor, by an average of 3.7 points. This is good news for the GOP because previous polling had Bullock ahead…. Handicappers rate the contest tossup or lean Republican.
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +9 (48-39-3)
COMMENT: Democrat Cunningham had led the last six polls by an average of 9.2 points. But, handicappers continue to rate the race a tossup.
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +2 (45-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The three previous polls showed incumbent Purdue slowly growing his lead, from 3% to 5% to 7%. This one shows a tighter contest. Handicappers rate the race tossup, lean/tilt Republican.
MASSACHUSETTS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Sen. Ed Markey (D) over Joe Kennedy (D): +3 (44-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has raised some eyebrows because previous polling gave challenger Kennedy the edge. From the poll report:
- Voters under 55 years old break 46-34 for incumbent Markey and those older than 55 break for Kennedy 45-42.
- Voters with some or no college favor Kennedy 49-31, while those with at least a college degree back Markey 49-37.
- Markey leads 48-40 among Democrats. But, unaffiliated voters, who can vote in the primary, favor Kennedy 42-38.