Among voters in each state
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) over Amy McGrath (R): +12 (53-41)
COMMENT: Handicappers rate this Senate race safe or likely Republican.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and Jaime Harrison (D): even (48-48)
COMMENT: Most observers expect Graham to win re-election, although polls have been showing a close race. This poll indicates that Graham’s problem is less partisan than it is personal:
- Graham’s personal rating is 44% favorable/49% unfavorable.
- Harrison’s personal rating is 47% favorable/34% unfavorable.
- By a margin of 49-40, voters say Graham is not honest. By a margin of 48-24, voters say that Harrison is honest.
- By a margin of 55-25, voters say Harrison cares about average people. By a margin of 48-45, voters say that Graham does not care about average people.
- But: Voters by a 52 – 44 margin want to see the Republican Party win control of the Senate.
- Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Democratic.
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +12 (54-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This is by far the biggest lead we’ve seen for Gideon. Quinnipiac polls often show Democrats doing better than other polls. Nonetheless, the last four pols put Gideon ahead by an average of 6.5 points, a clear lead…. Handicappers rate the contest tossup.
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +4 (42-38)
COMMENT: The average of the last four polls has Cunningham ahead by 3.3 points…. Handicappers rate this race a tossup.
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +4 (50-46)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last four polls has Kelly ahead by 6.5 points…. Handicappers rate the contest tilt or lean Democratic.