Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Emerson) Biden +2 (50-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The Emerson College poll, conducted Sunday and Monday, shows Biden with a narrow 2-point lead. It should be noted that Biden has not done as well in Emerson’s recent polling as he has in other polls. A month ago, Biden posted a 4-point lead in Emerson’s poll while several other surveys had been showing Biden with an average lead of 7.8 points…. The Morning Consult poll, taken Friday thru Sunday, finds a wider 8-point Biden lead. If the Morning Consult polling is accurate, it means that Trump’s “convention” bounce was shortlived…. Bottom line: Let’s wait for more polls before we fixate on any of these numbers.
In the States
State Trump carried in 2016:
MISSOURI: Trump +11
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Missouri by nearly 19 points in 2016. This poll was conducted by a Republican-affiliated firm.
11 State Polls
Morning Consult released numbers in 11 states based on polling they conducted Aug. 21-30, which means the interviewing was done after the Democratic “convention” (Aug. 17-20) and during and after the Republican “convention” (Aug. 24-27)––making these numbers less useful as an analytical tool. Nonetheless, the polling shows:
- Trump leading Ohio by 5 points and Texas by 1 point.
- Biden leading Michigan, Arizona and Colorado by 10 points.
- Biden leading Wisconsin by 9 points.
- Biden leading Minnesota by 7 points.
- Biden leading Pennsylvania by 4 points.
- Biden leading Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida by 2-3 points.