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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voting Method Could Derail Election Night Count – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 1

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 42% (Politico) to 49% (Emerson). Without these extremes it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-2 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(Emerson) Biden +2 (50-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (51-43)

RON’S COMMENT: The Emerson College poll, conducted Sunday and Monday, shows Biden with a narrow 2-point lead. It should be noted that Biden has not done as well in Emerson’s recent polling as he has in other polls. A month ago, Biden posted a 4-point lead in Emerson’s poll while several other surveys had been showing Biden with an average lead of 7.8 points…. The Morning Consult poll, taken Friday thru Sunday, finds a wider 8-point Biden lead. If the Morning Consult polling is accurate, it means that Trump’s “convention” bounce was shortlived…. Bottom line: Let’s wait for more polls before we fixate on any of these numbers.

In the States

State Trump carried in 2016: 
MISSOURI: Trump +11

RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Missouri by nearly 19 points in 2016. This poll was conducted by a Republican-affiliated firm.

11 State Polls

Morning Consult released numbers in 11 states based on polling they conducted Aug. 21-30, which means the interviewing was done after the Democratic “convention” (Aug. 17-20) and during and after the Republican “convention” (Aug. 24-27)––making these numbers less useful as an analytical tool. Nonetheless, the polling shows:

  • Trump leading Ohio by 5 points and Texas by 1 point.
  • Biden leading Michigan, Arizona and Colorado by 10 points.
  • Biden leading Wisconsin by 9 points.
  • Biden leading Minnesota by 7 points.
  • Biden leading Pennsylvania by 4 points.
  • Biden leading Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida by 2-3 points.

VOTING METHOD AND CANDIDATE SUPPORT

Among voters nationwide

Voting in-person early
Trump: 50%
Biden: 48%

Vote in-person on election day
Trump: 57%
Biden: 37%

Vote by mail
Trump: 28%
Biden: 67%

COMMENT: Voters that plan to vote early in-person break for Trump by 2 points. Election day in-person voters break heavily for Trump by 20 points. Voters that plan to vote by mail favor Biden by a whopping 39 points. If mail ballots are counted last, it could mean Trump’s strength will max out on election night and decline thereafter. Analysts at Hawkfish are calling this the Red Mirage…. In any case, buckle your seatbelts––we’re headed for quite a ride.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Which U.S. vice president lived longest?

(See answer below)

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VOTING METHOD AND CANDIDATE SUPPORT: Emerson College, Aug. 30-31; Morning Consult, Aug. 28-30
MISSOURI: Trafalgar Group (R), Aug. 26-28

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TRIVIA ANSWER

John Nance Garner, who served as FDR’s VP (1933-1941). He lived 98 years and 350 days. (Levi Morton came in second at 96 years. He was Benjamin Harrison’s VP)

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.