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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Warren Ancestry – AOC vs. Pelosi – New Hampshire Primaries – Trump’s Re-nomination


Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 12

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (CNN) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among voters nationwide

% = CNN/Reuters/The Hill = Average
Joe Biden: 24%/22%/27% = 24.3
Bernie Sanders: 17%/16%/15% = 16
Elizabeth Warren: 18%/11%/12% = 13.7
Kamala Harris: 8%/4%/7% = 6.3
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/4%/4% = 4.7
Andrew Yang: 2%/3%/5% = 3.3
Beto O’Rourke: 5%/2%/3% = 3.3
Cory Booker: 2%/3%/3% = 2.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/1%/1% = 1.3
Candidates with 1% or less in all three polls not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is consistently in first place, even though his lead over the field has dwindled. Sanders and Warren are still trading places…. Since mid-August, the CNN poll shows Biden dropping 5 points and Warren moving up 4 points. It has Sanders up 2 points. This poll also finds that 55% of Democrats want the party to nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump, while 39% want a candidate who shares their issue positions…. The Reuters poll is close to the CNN poll on Biden and Sanders, but it finds Warren 7 points lower than does the CNN poll. It also has Harris, Buttigieg and O’Rourke lower…. The Hill/HarrisX poll shows all three top candidates dipping 2 to 3 points since their last survey. Has candidate fatigue already set in? Note that Yang is at 5% in this poll.

RE-NOMINATION OF TRUMP

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the Republican party should re-nominate Donald Trump as the party’s candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? 

Re-nominate Trump: 77%
Different candidate: 20%

RON’S COMMENT: A strong majority of Republicans want to re-nominate President Trump next year. However, one in five would prefer a different candidate––which is about the same as it’s been since early 2018.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among Republican primary voters statewide

Donald Trump: 88%
Bill Weld: 3%
Joe Walsh: 1%
Other: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: This looks more like a coronation than a primary.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic voters statewide

Bernie Sanders: 29%
Joe Biden: 21%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Sanders leading New Hampshire. Of the two previous polls we reported, one had Biden ahead and the other had Warren in first place. In the latest three polls, Sanders’ numbers bounce from 13% to 25% to 29%. The average of the three most recent polls has Biden at 23.7, Sanders at 22.3 and Warren at 21.7––in effect, a three-way battle for the top.

PELOSI VS. AOC

Among Democratic voters in New Hampshire

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE] Do you generally prefer traditional party leaders like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or more progressive Representatives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 34%
Nancy Pelosi: 30%
Neither: 19%
Unsure: 17%

RON’S COMMENT: New Hampshire Democrats prefer “more progressive Representatives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez” over “traditional party leaders like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.” Note that a substantial 19% say neither.

WARREN AND NATIVE AMERICAN ANCESTRY

Among Democratic voters in New Hampshire

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE] Does the controversy surrounding Elizabeth Warren’s claims of Native American ancestry in any way make it more or less likely that you would support her, or does it have no effect on your view?

More likely to support Warren: 8%
No effect: 73%
Less likely to vote for Warren: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: Nearly three-fourths of New Hampshire Democrats say Warren’s claims of Native American ancestry has no effect on their view of her. Keep in mind that New Hampshire voters have been following this story since Warren ran for the Senate in 2012 when this was an issue in overlapping Massachusetts media markets.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: CNN, Sept. 5-9; Reuters/Ipsos, Sept. 9-10; The Hill/HarrisX, Sept. 7-8
RE-NOMINATION OF TRUMP: CNN, Sept. 5-9
NEW HAMPSHIRE, PELOSI VS. AOC, WARREN AND NATIVE AMERICAN ANCESTRY: Boston Herald/FPU, Sept. 4-10

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.