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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Warren Leads Iowa, Wisconsin Polls – Trump vs. Dems



Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 16


Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Morning Consult) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters nationwide

Among all general election voters
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (50-38)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (48-39)
Elizabeth Warren (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (46-39)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (45-39)

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is good news for Democrats, showing them beating Trump by clear margins. Trump doesn’t hit 40% in any of the trial heats. In the race against Biden, Trump loses every group except Republicans, which he wins 84-8, and whites, which he wins by 1 point. Biden beats Trump among blacks 84-2. This poll also shows Biden capturing 7% of Trump voters from 2016.

Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Biden and Warren on top, with Warren pulling away from the rest of the field. Since three weeks ago, this survey shows Biden down 2 points, Sanders down 5 points, Warren up 8 points and Harris down 2 points…. In this data, Warren is doing much better with whites than blacks (25% vs. 8%). Biden does better with blacks than whites (37% vs. 31%)…. Warren beats Biden among whites with a college degree (33-29), while Biden beats Warren among whites without a college degree (34-15)…. Yesterday, the HarrisX poll showed a different result, with Sanders second and Warren a distant third.


Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 28%
Joe Biden: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Steve Bullock: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Warren with the momentum in Iowa, going up 16 points since May. Biden and Sanders have each dropped 7 points since May. Note that Buttigieg remains a player in Iowa.


Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Joe Biden: 20%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Warren doing well.


Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?

Democratic candidate: 50% (+2 since last week)
Trump: 39% (same as last week)
It depends: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 9 points last week, now it’s 11 points. Note that this poll from The Economist/YouGov pegs Trump’s general election strength at 39%, which is about what the Fox News trial heats against named opponents show (see above).


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Fox News, Aug. 11-13
IOWA: Change Research/Starting Line, Aug. 9-11
WISCONSIN: Change Research/Crooked Media, Aug. 9-11
GENERIC DEMOCRAT: Economist/YouGov, Aug. 10-13

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux


Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.