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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Weather-Related Disasters – Global Populism – Government Overhaul – Texas – Trump vs. Generic Democrat

 

 


Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 6

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 46% (The Economist, Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Political Bookshelf

Becoming Ronald Reagan: The Rise of a Conservative Icon, by Robert Mann, is the definitive story of our 40th president’s political evolution in the 1950s and 1960s. It examines how Reagan the Hollywood liberal became Reagan the heartland conservative. And it explains how the skills Reagan learned and lessons he absorbed during his political apprenticeship—particularly working for General Electric and hosting the hit CBS television show General Electric Theater from 1954 to 1962—made him the inspiring leader so many Americans remember. Potomac Books. Buy it here

TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 

Democratic candidate: 46% (-2 since last week)
Trump: 41% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 8 points last week, since then it’s slipped to 5 points.

TEXAS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 24%
Beto O’Rourke: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Julian Castro: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Steve Bullock: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Though Biden posts a lead in Texas, his vote appears to be slipping a bit. The previous Texas poll we reported, taken in early August, had Biden at 28%, O’Rourke 19%, Sanders 16% and Warren 14%…. Looks like the days of the “favorite son” are long gone. The current Texas candidates, O’Rourke and Castro, receive a combined vote of only 22% among home-state Democrats.

WEATHER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS

Among adults nationwide

In your opinion, would you say weather-related disasters are more severe, less severe or has there been no change?

More severe: 72%
Less severe: 4%
No change: 24%

[Asked of those who say “more severe”] Do you think more severe weather is mainly due to climate change or natural year-to-year variations in the weather or both equally?

Due to climate change: 50%
Due to natural year-to-year variations in the weather: 12%
Due to both equally: 37%

RON’S COMMENT: Most Americans believe weather-related disasters are more severe. Of them, 87% believe climate change is a factor (50% + 37%) in the increased severity of weather. Note: This poll was taken before the rise of Hurricane Dorian.

GLOBAL POPULISM AND NATIVISM

Among adults in 27 countries around the globe

Findings of global survey:

  • The average global citizen feels left out of the “normal order” of life in his/her country:
    • 70% agree the economy is rigged to favor the rich and powerful (in the U.S., it’s 66%)
    • 66% agree that traditional parties and politicians ignore people “like me” (U.S. 67%)
    • 54% agree their country’s society is broken (U.S. 60%)
  • Disaffection is most widespread in Latin America and Eastern Europe
  • The U.S. shows a wide gender gap as a lot more women than men agree with
    each statement
  • The average global citizen wants more hands-on leadership:
    • 64% want a strong leader to “take country back” from the rich and powerful (U.S. 66%)
    • 62% agree that experts don’t understand people “like me” (U.S. 65%)
    • 49% want a strong leader willing to break rules to fix the country (U.S. 35%)
  • Agreement with the first two statements is especially prevalent in Spanish-speaking countries
  • In the U.S., it is most common in the 35-49 age group and among low and middle-income earners
  • The average global citizen is ambivalent about immigration, leaning toward a natives-first view:
    • Only 15% say their nation would be better off accepting all immigrants (U.S. 22%)
    • 60% say employers should favor natives when jobs are scarce (U.S. 55%)
    • 43% agree that immigrants take social services away from natives (U.S. 42%)
  • Nativism is most prevalent in Turkey, Malaysia, Serbia and Russia
  • In the U.S., nativist views are far less prevalent among the young

For more information on this Ipsos survey, click here

TEXAS: OVERHAUL GOVERNMENT

Among voters statewide

Thinking about the fundamental design and structure of American government, which statement comes closer to your own views – even if neither is exactly right?

  • Significant changes to the design and structure are needed to make it work for current times: 61%
  • The design and structure serves the country well and does not need significant changes: 38%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a solid majority of voters in Texas believe “significant changes to the design and structure” of American government are needed.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GLOBAL POPULISM: Ipsos, March 22-April 5, 2019
TEXAS: Texas Lyceum, Aug. 16-25
WEATHER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS: AP-NORC, Aug. 15-18
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 1-3

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

 

Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.