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09 Sep LUNCHTIME POLITICS: What Voters Look For – Florida Even – Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

Posted at 15:45h in Lunchtime Politics by

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 9

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016: 
FLORIDA: even
OHIO: Biden +4
MISSOURI: Trump +5
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna): Biden +2
PENNSYLVANIA (CNBC): Biden +4
PENNSYLVANIA (NBC); Biden +9

State Clinton carried in 2016:
NEW JERSEY: Biden +17

RON’S COMMENT: Uh oh! Looks like we may have another nail-biter in Florida. These results show a tie are based on likely voters; when we look at the registered voter sample, Trump gains a 1-point edge. In Florida, Biden wins Blacks 83-11, women 57-40 and independents 51-40. Trump wins men 58-38, Whites 56-41 and Whites without college degrees 63-35. Interesting: Biden is ahead of Trump by 1 point among seniors; four years ago Trump won Florida’s seniors by 17 points.

  • Pennsylvania is being, well, Pennsylvania; numbers bouncing around, and some close enough for the race to go either way.
  • The Ohio results are not good for Trump. This is a state he won by 8 points in 2016. Any Biden lead in Ohio is a good lead for him.
  • Though Trump wins Missouri in this new poll, the numbers are not encouraging from a wider perspective. Trump won Missouri by almost 19 points last time and is now ahead by a much tighter margin.

CONCERNS: IF OTHER CANDIDATE WINS

Among voters nationwide

Among Trump Voters:  You said you were voting for Donald Trump. Which would concern you most in 2021 if Joe Biden does win? Would you be most concerned about how Biden would handle…

Economic issues: 59%
Policing and protests: 31%
Matters on race and race relations: 6%
Coronavirus issues: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump voters fear Biden’s handling of economic issues the most. Policing and protests run second.

Among Biden Voters: You said you were voting for Joe Biden. Which would concern you most in 2021 if Donald Trump does win? Would you be most concerned about how Trump would handle…

Coronavirus issues: 38%
Matters on race and race relations: 30%
Policing and protests: 17%
Economic issues: 15%

COMMENT: Biden voters fear the most how Trump would handle the coronavirus and race issues.

LOOKING FOR IN A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

Among voters nationwide

While the job of president involves many things, when you vote for a presidential candidate, which of these is the most important thing you look for:

  • Management – that is, someone to make executive decisions, work on legislating, and handle crises that may arise: 35%
  • Morality – that is, someone to act as a personal example for the nation’s people and their values: 16%
  • Leadership – that is, someone who can set the larger direction for the country and inspire people to follow it: 46%
  • Personal connection – that is, someone who shares a similar background, upbringing or life experience as you: 3%

COMMENT: 50% of Democrats select leadership as the most important quality, behind management (26%) and morality (20%). Republicans rate leadership (44%) and management (41%) as their top two.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: NBC/Marist, Aug. 31-Sept. 6
OHIO: Rasmussen, Sept. 1-2
MISSOURI: We ask America, Sept. 1-3
NEW JERSEY: Emerson, Sept. 4-7
PENNSYLVANIA: Susquehanna, Aug. 26-Sept. 4
CONCERNS, LOOKING FOR IN CANDIDATES: CBS/YouGov, Sep. 2–4

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.