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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: When to Re-Open Economy? – Trump’s Honesty – Biden Leads Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan

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Your Daily Polling Update for *|DATE:l|*, *|DATE:F|* *|DATE:j|*

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (Politico, Rasmussen) to 50% (The Hill). The fourth poll had it at 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Tuesday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE
Biden over Trump: +6 (48-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a steady national lead (the average of the previous two polls had Biden +6.5). In this poll, he wins women 51-40, Democrats 87-5, blacks 77-11 and Hispanics 49-35. Trump ties men (45-45) and wins whites 48-44.

MICHIGAN
Biden over Trump: +8 (49-41)

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is very good news for Biden. Trump carried Michigan last time by the tiny margin of two-tenths of a point…. 59% of voters think the Trump Administration moved too slowly on the coronavirus crisis…. Trump’s overall job rating in Michigan is 47% approve/51% disapprove (close to his national average)…. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s rating is 63% approve/35% disapprove. She is a contender for the VP nomination.

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden over Trump: +8 (50-42)

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is also very good news for Biden. In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania by seven-tenths of a point.

FLORIDA
Biden over Trump: +4 (46-42)

RON’S COMMENT: The last poll we reported had Florida even. This Quinnipiac survey has Biden modestly ahead. It should be noted that Quinnipiac polls often show Democrats doing better than do other polls…. In this poll, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ rating in handling the coronavirus is 50% approve/41% disapprove; for Trump, it’s 46% approve/51% disapprove.

RE-OPEN ECONOMY

Among U.S. adults nationwide

When do you think it will be safe to fully re-open the economy nationally? 

It is safe right now: 8%
In about two weeks: 6%
In a month or so: 19%
In several months: 34%
In about a year or longer: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: In summary––only 14% of Americans think it would be safe to reopen the economy within the next two weeks and nearly half (49%) think it will take anywhere from several months to a year or longer…. 26% of Republicans, 5% of Democrats and 14% of independents think it will be safe to reopen the economy within the next two weeks…. 37% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 43% of independents think it will take anywhere from several months to a year or longer.

When do you think it will be safe to end social distancing measures and re-open businesses as normal? 

On or before June 1: 38%
After June 1: 44%
Not sure: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: 30% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans say it will be safe to end social distancing between now and June 1…. 57% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans say after June 1.

STAY-AT-HOME

Among U.S. adults nationwide

Do you think stay-at-home orders are effective at slowing the spread of COVID-19? 

Extremely/Very effective: 63%
Somewhat effective: 28%
Not very/Not at all effective: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: 80% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans say stay-at-home orders are “extremely” or “very effective.”

Do you believe that a stay-at-home order is a violation of constitutional rights? 

Yes, a violation: 21%
No, not a violation: 65%

RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans say stay-at-home orders are a violation of constitutional rights.

How serious a risk is COVID-19 to your personal health? 

My single greatest health risk: 17%
A very serious risk: 32%
One of many risks I face: 33%
Not a risk: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: 60% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans say COVID-19 is either a “very serious risk” or the “single greatest risk” to their personal health.

TRUMP’S HONESTY

Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not? 

Is honest and trustworthy: 35%
Not honest and trustworthy: 54%
Not sure: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: 5% of Democrats, 27% of independents and 74% of Republicans say Trump is honest and trustworthy.

THE ECONOMY

Among voters nationwide

Overall, do you think the economy is getting better or worse? 

Getting better: 17%
About the same: 18%
Getting worse: 57%

RON’S COMMENT: 74% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans say the economy is getting worse. Also, 58% of voters believe the U.S. is in an economic recession.

GOVERNMENT STATS

Among voters nationwide

In general, how many of the statistics reported by the government are reliable and accurate? 

None/A small portion: 29%
About half: 31%
Most/All: 40%

RON’S COMMENT: Interestingly, there’s not much difference between Democrats and Republicans on this question.

SIX SWING STATES

Among voters in six key states

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN SIX SWING STATES: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin

Trump over Biden: +1 (48-47-4)

RON’S COMMENT: In total, Trump leads Biden by 1 point in these six states that Trump carried in 2016 by very to fairly close margins: two-tenths of a point in Michigan, 1.2 points in Florida, seven-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania, nearly 4 points in North Carolina, seven-tenths of a point in Wisconsin and nearly 4 points in Arizona.

TRUMP VS. BIDEN ON ISSUES IN SIX SWING STATES: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin

Who do you think would do a better job handling each of the following: Donald Trump and Republicans––or––Joe Biden and Democrats? 

  • The coronavirus: 51% said Biden and Democrats would do a better job handling the outbreak, while 49% chose Trump and Republicans
  • Preventing another pandemic: 51% Biden to 49% Trump
  • Recovering from a recession: 50% Biden to 50% Trump
  • The economy: 52% Trump to 48% Biden
  • Creating jobs: 51% Trump to 49% Biden
  • The stock market: 57% Trump to 43% Biden
  • Helping your pocketbook: 51% Trump to 49% Biden
  • Putting the middle class first: 52% Biden to 48% Trump
  • Making health care more affordable: 52% Biden to 48% Trump
  • Relying on facts and science to make decisions: 52% Biden to 48% Trump

RON’S COMMENT: Note that this poll was conducted among voters in only six swing states––Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin––all states that Trump carried in 2016.

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A note to our readers:
Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, RE-OPEN ECONOMY, STAY-AT-HOME, TRUMP HONESTY, THE ECONOMY, GOVERNMENT STATS: The Economist/YouGov, April 19-21
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, April 16-20
PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN: Fox News, April 18-21
SWING STATE POLL: CNBC/Change Research, April 17-18NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so. 

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright *|DATE:Y|* Ronald A. Faucheux
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Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 23

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (Politico, Rasmussen) to 50% (The Hill). The fourth poll had it at 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Tuesday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

NATIONWIDE
Biden over Trump: +6 (48-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a steady national lead (the average of the previous two polls had Biden +6.5). In this poll, he wins women 51-40, Democrats 87-5, blacks 77-11 and Hispanics 49-35. Trump ties men (45-45) and wins whites 48-44.

MICHIGAN
Biden over Trump: +8 (49-41)

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is very good news for Biden. Trump carried Michigan last time by the tiny margin of two-tenths of a point…. 59% of voters think the Trump Administration moved too slowly on the coronavirus crisis…. Trump’s overall job rating in Michigan is 47% approve/51% disapprove (close to his national average)…. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s rating is 63% approve/35% disapprove. She is a contender for the VP nomination.

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden over Trump: +8 (50-42)

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is also very good news for Biden. In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania by seven-tenths of a point.

FLORIDA
Biden over Trump: +4 (46-42)

RON’S COMMENT: The last poll we reported had Florida even. This Quinnipiac survey has Biden modestly ahead. It should be noted that Quinnipiac polls often show Democrats doing better than do other polls…. In this poll, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ rating in handling the coronavirus is 50% approve/41% disapprove; for Trump, it’s 46% approve/51% disapprove.

RE-OPEN ECONOMY

Among U.S. adults nationwide

When do you think it will be safe to fully re-open the economy nationally? 

It is safe right now: 8%
In about two weeks: 6%
In a month or so: 19%
In several months: 34%
In about a year or longer: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: In summary––only 14% of Americans think it would be safe to reopen the economy within the next two weeks and nearly half (49%) think it will take anywhere from several months to a year or longer…. 26% of Republicans, 5% of Democrats and 14% of independents think it will be safe to reopen the economy within the next two weeks…. 37% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 43% of independents think it will take anywhere from several months to a year or longer.

When do you think it will be safe to end social distancing measures and re-open businesses as normal? 

On or before June 1: 38%
After June 1: 44%
Not sure: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: 30% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans say it will be safe to end social distancing between now and June 1…. 57% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans say after June 1.

STAY-AT-HOME

Among U.S. adults nationwide

Do you think stay-at-home orders are effective at slowing the spread of COVID-19? 

Extremely/Very effective: 63%
Somewhat effective: 28%
Not very/Not at all effective: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: 80% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans say stay-at-home orders are “extremely” or “very effective.”

Do you believe that a stay-at-home order is a violation of constitutional rights? 

Yes, a violation: 21%
No, not a violation: 65%

RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans say stay-at-home orders are a violation of constitutional rights.

How serious a risk is COVID-19 to your personal health? 

My single greatest health risk: 17%
A very serious risk: 32%
One of many risks I face: 33%
Not a risk: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: 60% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans say COVID-19 is either a “very serious risk” or the “single greatest risk” to their personal health.

TRUMP’S HONESTY

Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not? 

Is honest and trustworthy: 35%
Not honest and trustworthy: 54%
Not sure: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: 5% of Democrats, 27% of independents and 74% of Republicans say Trump is honest and trustworthy.

THE ECONOMY

Among voters nationwide

Overall, do you think the economy is getting better or worse? 

Getting better: 17%
About the same: 18%
Getting worse: 57%

RON’S COMMENT: 74% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans say the economy is getting worse. Also, 58% of voters believe the U.S. is in an economic recession.

GOVERNMENT STATS

Among voters nationwide

In general, how many of the statistics reported by the government are reliable and accurate? 

None/A small portion: 29%
About half: 31%
Most/All: 40%

RON’S COMMENT: Interestingly, there’s not much difference between Democrats and Republicans on this question.

SIX SWING STATES

Among voters in six key states

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN SIX SWING STATES: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin

Trump over Biden: +1 (48-47-4)

RON’S COMMENT: In total, Trump leads Biden by 1 point in these six states that Trump carried in 2016 by very to fairly close margins: two-tenths of a point in Michigan, 1.2 points in Florida, seven-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania, nearly 4 points in North Carolina, seven-tenths of a point in Wisconsin and nearly 4 points in Arizona.

TRUMP VS. BIDEN ON ISSUES IN SIX SWING STATES: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin

Who do you think would do a better job handling each of the following: Donald Trump and Republicans––or––Joe Biden and Democrats? 

  • The coronavirus: 51% said Biden and Democrats would do a better job handling the outbreak, while 49% chose Trump and Republicans
  • Preventing another pandemic: 51% Biden to 49% Trump
  • Recovering from a recession: 50% Biden to 50% Trump
  • The economy: 52% Trump to 48% Biden
  • Creating jobs: 51% Trump to 49% Biden
  • The stock market: 57% Trump to 43% Biden
  • Helping your pocketbook: 51% Trump to 49% Biden
  • Putting the middle class first: 52% Biden to 48% Trump
  • Making health care more affordable: 52% Biden to 48% Trump
  • Relying on facts and science to make decisions: 52% Biden to 48% Trump

RON’S COMMENT: Note that this poll was conducted among voters in only six swing states––Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin––all states that Trump carried in 2016.

SUBSCRIBE

Click here to forward this message to a friend or client.
You can sign up here to receive Lunchtime Politics in your inbox everyday. Follow LunchtimePolitics on Twitter.

A note to our readers:
Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, RE-OPEN ECONOMY, STAY-AT-HOME, TRUMP HONESTY, THE ECONOMY, GOVERNMENT STATS: The Economist/YouGov, April 19-21
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, April 16-20
PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN: Fox News, April 18-21
SWING STATE POLL: CNBC/Change Research, April 17-18

 

NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so. 

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.