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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Why Pollsters Missed the Mark – Gaetz at Home – Party Issue Handling

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, April 14

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 54%

Same as last week

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 50% (Rasmussen) to 59% (Politico/Morning Consult). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 41% today (-1 from last week).

PARTY ISSUE HANDLING

Among voters nationwide

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? 

% = Democrats in Congress/Republicans in Congress
Climate change: 53%/22% (D+31)
The environment: 53%/24% (D+29)
Coronavirus: 51%/26% (D+25)
Protecting Social Security/Medicare: 50%/30% (D+20)
Healthcare: 50%/31% (D+19)
Education: 48%/30% (D+18)
Voting rights: 48%/32% (D+16)
The economy: 43%/38% (D+5)
Gun policy: 42%/37% (D+5)
Immigration: 42%/38% (D+4)
National security: 40%/40% (even)

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats dominate most of the issues on this laundry list. Republicans have lost the edge they had on the economy and national security during Trump’s reign. Notice how Democrats in Congress run so far ahead on the coronavirus. Also notice that Republicans in Congress rate 30% or less on climate change, the environment, the coronavirus, Social Security/Medicare and education.

MATT GAETZ

Among Republican voters districtwide

  • 63% of Republican voters in Gaetz’s district (Florida, 1st CD) say he is not guilty of sex trafficking allegations, 18% say he is guilty and 19% don’t know.
  • 72% of Republicans think he should not resign and 19% think he should resign.
  • If Gaetz leaves office and there is a special election, 18% of Republicans would now support state Sen. Doug Broxson for the party’s nomination. Running behind is Chris Dosev with 7%, Jimmy Patronis with 5% and Larry Keefe with 4%.

RON’S COMMENT: Gaetz holds the support of most Republicans in his U.S. House district, although 28% to 37% of his fellow partisans express some resistance to him. The survey was conducted by a Republican firm…. Gaetz won the 2020 GOP primary with 81% of the vote and the general election with 65%. His district includes Florida’s western Panhandle which covers Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach and Navarre. Gaetz was first elected in 2016.

WHY POLLSTERS MISSED THE MARK

An analysis by five Democratic pollsters

Revisiting Polling for 2021 and Beyond

By ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group, and Normington Petts

“Together, we represent five survey research firms for Democratic political campaigns. During the 2020 election, we worked on the presidential campaign, every major Senate and gubernatorial race, and congressional races across the country. Our main job as pollsters is to provide campaigns with a strategic roadmap for winning, guide their messaging, and help identify the right targets for those messages.
Every one of us thought Democrats would have a better Election Day than they did. So, what went wrong?”
To read the entire memo click here

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PARTY ISSUE HANDLING: Politico/Morning Consult, April 2-4
MATT GAETZ: Victory Insights (R), April 9
REVISITING POLLING FOR 2021 AND BEYOND: Democracy Docket, published April 13, 2021

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.