10 Feb New Hampshire Update
Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 11
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from Friday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
% = Globe / WHDH / CBS / CNN / Herald / UMass = Average
RON’S COMMENT: Our New Hampshire average today is based on six polls conducted Tuesday to Sunday. The first two numbers in bold are the two most recent tracking polls which were conducted Saturday and Sunday. Let’s look at the trend:
HOW DID IOWA POLLS DO?
Comparison of last polling average with actual votes cast
Let’s compare the final polling average to the popular votes cast (first alignment) in the Feb. 3 Iowa caucus:
AVERAGE OF FINAL THREE IOWA POLLS
IOWA POPULAR VOTES CAST first alignment
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the final three Iowa polls (Civiqs, Emerson, CBS) put Sanders first, Biden second, Buttigieg third, Warren fourth and Klobuchar fifth. The actual votes cast (first alignment) had Sanders first, Buttigieg second, Warren third, Biden fourth and Klobuchar fifth…. It should be noted that actual votes cast is different than the allocation of delegates, which Buttigieg won…. In terms of polling vs. votes cast, Biden overpolled the most and Klobuchar underpolled the most…. Let’s look at what happened:
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: CNN/UNH, Feb. 5-8; Boston Herald/FPU, Feb. 5-8; CBS/YouGov, Feb. 5-8; Boston Globe/Suffolk, Feb. 8-9; WHDH/Emerson, Feb. 8-9; UMass Lowell, Feb. 4-7Sponsored Message
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Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux