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New National Dem Poll – South Carolina, Texas, North Carolina, New York, Maryland – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 25


Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 50% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 4 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Bernie Sanders: 32%
Michael Bloomberg: 19%
Joe Biden: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Looking at the internal data from this post-debate national poll….

  • Between Thursday (Feb. 20) and Sunday (Feb. 23), this poll shows Sanders moving up 2 points and Bloomberg recovering a bit, going up 2 points, from 17% to 19%. Biden, Warren and Klobuchar are each down a point and Buttigieg remains the same.
  • The poll now puts Sanders ahead among black voters nationwide (30%) with Biden and Bloomberg tied for second place (25% each).
  • Sanders leads whites with 29% and Hispanics with 45%.
  • Sanders wins Gen Z with 55%, Millennials with 43%, Gen X with 30%. Biden wins Boomers with 23%, Bloomberg is a close second at 22% and Sanders is third at 19%.


Among Democratic voters in each state

South Carolina Primary
% = NBC / PPP = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/36% = 31.5
Bernie Sanders: 23%/21% = 22
Tom Steyer: 15%/7% = 11
Pete Buttigieg: 9%/7% = 8
Elizabeth Warren: 8%/8% = 8
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%/6% = 4.5
Amy Klobuchar: 5%/3% = 4

RON’S COMMENT: Two more polls showing Biden hanging onto his lead in “firewall” South Carolina. But: NBC puts Biden’s advantage over Sanders at a modest 4 points, while the PPP poll has him leading by a wide 15 points. What to believe? Let’s see how tonight’s debate goes. The primary is Saturday for 54 delegates

Texas Primary
Joe Biden: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%

RON’S COMMENT: This survey was taken Feb. 6-18, an unusually long 13-day interviewing window, especially during a time with fast-moving events. In any case, it has Biden and Sanders tied at the top with Warren close behind. The primary is March 3 for 228 delegates, the second biggest delegate haul on Super Tuesday.

North Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Michael Bloomberg: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken after the last debate. The two polls before the debate gave Bloomberg 22% and 19%, and one had Sanders ahead. Looks like Bloomberg’s loss may be Biden’s gain. The primary is Super Tuesday, March 3, for 110 delegates.

New York Primary
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Michael Bloomberg: 21%
Joe Biden: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is leading in this poll of New York state Democrats with Bloomberg second. Internals:

  • Among only NYC voters, Bloomberg beats Sanders 27-19––but, Sanders wins upstate 35-12 and the suburbs 29-17.
  • Bloomberg runs first among African Americans statewide (24%) with Biden a close second (23%).
  • Catholics favor Sanders over Bloomberg, 29-23.
  • Jewish voters pick Bloomberg first (28%) and Buttigieg second (16%).
  • Bloomberg’s rating in NYC is 59% favorable/36% unfavorable. However, upstate is decidedly negative, at 25% favorable/58% unfavorable, and in the suburbs, it’s a not-so-hot 39% favorable/54% unfavorable.
  • Most of this poll was conducted before the last debate.
  • The primary isn’t until April 28 for 274 delegates.

Maryland Primary
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Joe Biden: 18%
Michael Bloomberg: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: The Maryland primary is April 28 for 96 delegates.


Which current member of the U.S. Senate recorded a folk album; had parts in two movies, “My X-Girlfriend’s Wedding Reception” and “Sweet Hearts Dance”; lost a race for governor; taught at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government; and has a Ben & Jerry’s ice cream flavor named after him?

(See answer below)


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Feb. 23; The Economist/YouGov, Feb.
SOUTH CAROLINA: NBC/Marist, Feb. 18-21; PPP (D), Feb. 23-24
TEXAS: Univ. of Houston, Feb. 6-19
NEW YORK: Siena, Feb. 16-20
MARYLAND: Goucher College, Feb. 13-19


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Bernie Sanders.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.