PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

FINAL––POLL AVERAGES, NATIONWIDE POPULR VOTE
(Based on the latest 15 polls; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)

(Redfield & Wilton) Biden +12 (53-41)
(Quinnipiac) Biden +11 (50-39)
(USC) Biden +11 (54-43)
(Qriously) Biden +11 (54-43)
(YouGov) Biden +10 (53-43)
(WSJ/NBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(CNBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(AYTM) Biden +9 (48-39)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (52-44)
(SurveyUSA) Biden +8 (52-44)
(RMG) Biden +7 (51-44)
(Reuters) Biden +7 (52-45)
(JTN/RMG) Biden +7 (51-44)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +4 (50-46)
(Rasmussen) Biden +1 (48-47)
Average of last 15 polls: Biden +8.3

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average national popular vote is 51.4% (up slightly from 51.3% yesterday) and Trump’s average national popular vote is 43.1% (down slightly from 44.2% yesterday). That leaves 5.5% undecided or for third-party candidates…. If you assume there is a “hidden” Trump vote of one or two points and one or two points of the undecided/third-party vote breaks his way, that would put him at about his 2016 vote percentage of 46%, which is also right where his average job approval rating is today.

FINAL––POLL AVERAGES IN THE STATES 
(Based on most recent polling; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)

States Trump carried in 2016
First # = Yesterday’s Average; Second # = Today’s Average

• WISCONSIN (10): Biden +6.6, +8.7
• MICHIGAN (16): Biden +4.8, +4.2
• PENNSYLVANIA (20): Biden +4.2, +2.8
• FLORIDA (29): Biden +2, +2
• ARIZONA (11): Biden +1, +1.7
• OHIO (18): Biden +0.3, Trump +2
• GEORGIA (16): Biden +0.4, Trump +1
• NORTH CAROLINA (15): Trump +1.2, Biden +0.6
• TEXAS (38): Trump +1.7, +1.7
• IOWA (6): Trump +3.3, +2.3
• MAINE CD2 (1): Biden +3.7, +3.7

States Clinton carried in 2016
First # = Yesterday’s Average; Second # = Today’s Average

• NEVADA (6): Biden +3.6, +2.3

RON’S COMMENT: For each state, we have two averages. The first average is yesterday’s reported polls and the second average includes today’s reported polls…. It should be mentioned that a number of new polls were conducted by Trafalgar, which is a Republican-affiliated firm that often shows Trump doing better than other polls…. Here are the changes since yesterday:

• Ohio and Georgia flipped from Biden to Trump, but still close.
• North Carolina flipped from Trump to Biden, but still very close.
• Biden still leads Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada––but, his margins declined.
• Biden’s lead widened in Wisconsin and Arizona; the latter is still very close.
• Trump still leads Iowa––but, his margin declined.
• Biden’s slim lead in Florida holding steady.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

POLL AVERAGES: Averages of most recent polls in each state; updated since yesterday

ALABAMA
Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +10.8
Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican

COLORADO
John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R): +9.3
Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Democratic

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +6.1
Handicappers rate the race tilt/lean Democratic

MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +3.8
Handicappers rate the race tilt/lean Democraticor tossup

NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +3
Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic or tossup

GEORGIA
Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1
Handicappers rate the race tossup

MONTANA
Sen. Steve Daines (R) over Steve Bullock (D): +0.3
Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Republican

IOWA
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) over Theresa Greenfield (D): +0.1
Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Republican

MICHIGAN
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +5.5
Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic

SOUTH CAROLINA
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +3.2
Handicappers rate the race lean/tilt Republican or tossup

KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) over Barbara Boilier (D): +3.3
Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Republican

TEXAS
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +6
Handicappers rate the race lean Republican

MINNESOTA
Sen. Tina Smith (D) over Jason Lewis (R): +9.6
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic

KENTUCKY
Sen. Mitchell (R) over Amy McGrath (D): +10.3
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Republican

MISSISSIPPI
Sen. Cindy-Hyde Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +6.5
Handicappers rate the race likely or safe Republican

NEW MEXICO
Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +9.7
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic

VIRGINIA
Sen. Mark Warner (D) over Daniel Glade (R): +17.7
Handicappers rate the race safe Democratic

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Corky Messner (R): +14.3
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic

ALASKA
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) over Al Gross (I): +3
Handicappers rate the race lean Republican

GEORGIA Special Election; Open Primary
Raphael Warnock (D): 42.6%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 24%
Doug Collins (R): 22.4%
Matt Lieberman (D): 5%
(If no one wins a majority, there will be a runoff in January)

RON’S COMMENT: Based on these polling averages––
Republicans have:

• A good chance at picking up one seat now held by a Democrat (Alabama).
• An outside chance at picking up one other seat now held by a Democrat (Michigan).

Democrats have:

• A good chance at picking up three seats now held by Republicans (Colorado, Arizona, Maine).
• A fair chance at picking up one seat now held by a Republican (North Carolina).
• An even chance at picking up three seats now held by Republicans (Georgia, Iowa, Montana).
• An outside chance at picking up three seats now held by Republicans (Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska; the Democratic nominee in Alaska is an independent).

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Which was the closest state in the 2016 general election in in terms of vote percentages?
BONUS: Which state was second closest?

(See answers below)

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TUESDAY TRIVIA

Michigan was the closest state in 2016. Trump’s margin of victory was 0.23 points.
BONUS: New Hampshire was second closest. Clinton’s margin of victory was 0.37 points.