PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Morning Consult) Biden +6 (50-44)
(Yahoo News) Biden +6 (47-41)
RON’S COMMENT: While some media reports are saying there was no Trump bounce after the GOP “convention,” the numbers show something different. Biden is still clearly ahead in trial heats based on these polls, but the Morning Consult poll shows Biden’s national lead falling from 10 points before the GOP “convention” to 6 points now…. Also, the Yahoo News poll shows Biden’s lead falling from 11 points in their Aug. 21-23 poll to 6 points in their Aug. 27-28 survey…. Bottom line: Based on these two polls, there was a Trump bounce, and a tightening of Biden’s trial heat margin. Of course, we don’t know how long this bounce will last or whether other polls will show something different…. One other thing: While Trump may have cut into Biden’s lead, numbers show that Biden’s favorability ratings have fared better than Trump’s as a result of their party’s “convention”…. Internal data from the Morning Consult poll:
- Trump gains in the suburbs: Before the GOP “convention,” Biden led suburban voters by 14 points. After, Biden’s lead fell to 8 points.
- Trump gains among Whites: Trump quadrupled his lead among White voters from 2 points to 8 points.
- Trump down slightly among minority voters. Biden’s lead among Blacks and Hispanics, already wide, expanded a bit during the GOP “convention,” according to the Morning Consult poll report.
- Favorable ratings: Biden’s favorable rating went down 2 points and his unfavorable rating went up 1 point after the Republican “convention.” However, Biden’s favorability had increased during his “convention” and still rates better than does his opponent. Trump is now 43% favorable/55% unfavorable and Biden is 49% favorable/47% unfavorable.
- Note: An ABC/Ipsos poll showing that “Americans’ views toward the major party nominees remain unchanged” after the Republican conclave has been used by some analysts to make the case that there was no Trump bounce. But––that poll’s sample was based on all adults and not on registered voters or likely voters, making it less useful as an analytical tool in this election.
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