22 Oct Rating 100 Senators – Dems Lead Minnesota – Tuesday Trivia
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 22
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (CNN, The Economist) to 45% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Florida is the King of Swing States, which Trump won in 2016 by a small margin. This poll shows Biden does best against Trump––which continues to be his calling card in this race. But it also shows Warren leading and Buttigieg running close. Trump’s vote range is 43-44.
RON’S COMMENT: All four Democrats beat Trump by clear margins in Minnesota, Klobuchar’s home state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump here by a thin 1.5-point margin. Republicans have had high hopes Trump would nab Minnesota next year, but this poll shows that may be wishful thinking.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = SurveyUSA/Politico = Average
RON’S COMMENT: The demise of Biden’s candidacy may have been exaggerated––at least according to these two polls which give the former VP a clear advantage…. The last debate was Oct. 15 and the SurveyUSA poll was taken Oct. 15-16 and the Politico poll was taken Oct. 16-20…. Since last week in the Politico poll, Biden is down 2 points, Warren stayed the same, Sanders is down 1 and Buttigieg and Klobuchar are each up 1…. In the Politico subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 27%, then Warren at 21% and Sanders at 18%.
100 SENATORS: JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state
% = Approve/Disapprove
UPPER MIDDLE RANGE
RON’S COMMENT: The two Vermont senators, Sanders and Leahy, maintain the highest ratings. New Jersey’s Menendez and North Carolina’s Tillis have the two lowest…. Six of the top 10 are Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats and four are Republicans…. Presidential candidates Sanders and Klobuchar are in the top 10. Harris and Bennet rank in the lower middle range…. Arizona’s McSally, Iowa’s Ernst, Kentucky’s McConnell, Michigan’s Peters, Colorado’s Gardner and North Carolina’s Tillis are all in the bottom 10 and all are expected to have tough races next year…. Caveat: This data is based on surveys conducted between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2019. As such, some of these results may not provide an up-to-date reading.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MINNESOTA: Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon, Oct. 14-16
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: SurveyUSA, Oct. 15-16; Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 16-20
SENATOR JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, July 1 – Sept. 30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
1972. Nixon beat McGovern in Minnesota by nearly 6 points.
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux