Warren Leads in Early Primary States (10/14/2019 Update)

A new CBS/YouGov poll of Democratic Primary voters in all early voting states (states voting through Super Tuesday) shows Warren leading with 31% support, Biden following with 25%, and Sanders at 17%. When asked to select which candidates they could consider supporting, with multiple answer options allowed, Warren also leads with 64% support. 51% said they could support Biden, and 42% said they could support Sanders.

The poll also shows that 59% of Democratic Primary voters would prefer to hear Democratic candidates talk about beating Trump rather than impeaching Trump. Younger voters under 30 are particularly likely to want candidates to focus on beating Trump – 63% hold that view. African-Americans are the most divided – an even 50/50 split.

Biden’s fighting a lack of intensity on whether he will be a champion for Democratic primary voters. 39% agree “a great deal” that Biden will fight for people like them. Voters under 30 (29%), whites (35%), and independents (25%) are particularly soft on Biden here. Sanders and Warren perform much more strongly on this front — 61% for Warren and 60% for Sanders.

At the same time, Biden stands out as the candidate with realistic policy proposals. 76% describe his policy proposals as realistic, compared to 24% see them as idealist. Warren is seen as more realistic than idealist — 57% to 43%. 4 in 10 viewing Warren’s policy proposals as idealist may be a hindrance if Democratic primary voters focus on electability. That being said, it remains to be seen if being the candidate with the most realistic policy proposals is a boon or a burden in the current race.

The survey also had a fascinating question on media consumption. The old ways seem to reign supreme. Television news (66%) and internet news (61%) remain the primary way most Democratic primary voters in early states are following the election, not Facebook (34%) or Twitter (31%). Even among Democratic primary voters under 30, 41% say they follow the campaign via Facebook, still less than television news (57%) and internet news sites (63%).

Andrew Rugg

Andrew Rugg is an expert in survey research, media analytics, and qualitative research projects. Before leading the team at Certus, he lead a fully integrated research department at a public relations agency.